Send to

Choose Destination
Popul Stud (Camb). 2018 Mar;72(1):1-15. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1401654. Epub 2017 Dec 19.

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.

Author information

a University of Washington.
b University of the Witwatersrand.


In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.


Bayesian hierarchical model; Estimation and Projection Package; Spectrum; UNAIDS; World Population Prospects; cohort component projection method

[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for PubMed Central
Loading ...
Support Center