Format

Send to

Choose Destination
Int J Biometeorol. 2018 Apr;62(4):575-583. doi: 10.1007/s00484-017-1466-2. Epub 2017 Nov 16.

Effects of heat waves on daily excess mortality in 14 Korean cities during the past 20 years (1991-2010): an application of the spatial synoptic classification approach.

Author information

1
National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration, 33 Seohobuk-ro, Seogwipo-si, Jeju, 63568, South Korea. dglee7@korea.kr.
2
School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea. dglee7@korea.kr.
3
National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration, 33 Seohobuk-ro, Seogwipo-si, Jeju, 63568, South Korea.
4
National Meteorological Satellite Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Gwanghyewon, South Korea.
5
Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH, 44242, USA.
6
Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Miami, Florida, 33136, USA.
7
School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.

Abstract

The aims of this study are to explore the "offensive" summer weather types classified under the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) system and to evaluate their impacts on excess mortality in 14 Korean cities. All-cause deaths per day for the entire population were examined over the summer months (May-September) of 1991-2010. Daily deaths were standardized to account for long-term trends of subcycles (annual, seasonal, and weekly) at the mid-latitudes. In addition, a mortality prediction model was constructed through multiple stepwise regression to develop a heat-health warning system based on synoptic climatology. The result showed that dry tropical (DT) days during early summer caused excess mortality due to non-acclimatization by inhabitants, and moist tropical (MT) plus and double plus resulted in greater spikes of excess mortality due to extremely hot and humid conditions. Among the 14 Korean cities, highly excess mortality for the elderly was observed in Incheon (23.2%, 95%CI 5.6), Seoul (15.8%, 95%CI 2.6), and Jeonju (15.8%, 95%CI 4.6). No time lag effect was observed, and excess mortality gradually increased with time and hot weather simultaneously. The model showed weak performance as its predictions were underestimated for the validation period (2011-2015). Nevertheless, the results clearly revealed the efficiency of relative and multiple-variable approaches better than absolute and single-variable approaches. The results indicate the potential of the SSC as a suitable system for investigating heat vulnerability in South Korea, where hot summers could be a significant risk factor.

KEYWORDS:

Excess mortality; Heat–health warning system; Korea; Spatial synoptic classification

PMID:
29143880
DOI:
10.1007/s00484-017-1466-2
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Springer
Loading ...
Support Center