Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence

Int J Legal Med. 2018 Jul;132(4):1125-1138. doi: 10.1007/s00414-017-1733-0. Epub 2017 Nov 14.

Abstract

Purpose: The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images.

Methods: The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis.

Results: Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

Keywords: Adult age estimation; Bayesian approach; Bayesian networks; Forensic age estimation; Pulp chamber volume narrowing; Secondary dentine deposition.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Determination by Teeth / methods*
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Child
  • Cone-Beam Computed Tomography*
  • Dental Pulp Cavity / diagnostic imaging*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Imaging, Three-Dimensional
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Young Adult