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J Viral Hepat. 2017 Oct;24 Suppl 2:25-43. doi: 10.1111/jvh.12760.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm: Volume 4.

Chan HLY1,2, Chen CJ3, Omede O4, Al Qamish J5, Al Naamani K6, Bane A7,8, Tan SS9, Simonova M10, Cardenas I11, Derbala M12, Akin O4, Phillips RO13, Abdelmageed MK14, Abdulla M15, Adda D16,17, Al Baqali A18, Al Dweik N12, Al Ejji K12, Al Ghazzawi I19, Al Kaabi S12, Al Sadadi M15, Al Salman J15, AlBadri M12, Al-Busafi SA20, Al-Romaihi HE21, Ampofo W22, Antonov K23, Anyaike C4, Arome F24, Blach S25, Borodo MM26,27, Brandon SM25, Bright B28, Butt MT12, Chen DS29, Chen PJ30, Chien RN31, Chuang WL32, Cuellar D33, Elbardiny AA21, Estes C25, Farag E21, Fung J34, Gamkrelidze I25, Garcia V35, Genov J36, Ghandour Z37, Ghuloom M15, Gomez B38, Gunter J25, Habeeb J15, Hajelssedig O12, Hamoudi W39,40, Himatt SM21, Hrstic I41, Hu CC31, Huang CF32, Hui YT42, Jahis R43, Jelev D23, John AK12, Kaliaskarova KS44,45, Kamel Y12,46, Kao JH47, Khamis J15, Khattabi H48, Khoudri I49, Konysbekova A50,51, Kotzev I52, Lai MS53, Lao WC54, Layden J55, Lee MH56, Lesi O57,58, Li M59, Lo A2, Loo CK60, Lukšić B61, Maaroufi A49, Malu AO62, Mateva L23, Mitova R36, Mohamed R63, Morović M64, Murphy K25, Mustapha B65, Nersesov A66, Ngige E4, Njouom R67, Njoya O68, Nonković D69, Obekpa S24,62, Oguche S70,71,72, Okolo EE73, Omuemu C74, Ondoa P75,76, Opare-Sem O13, Owusu-Ofori S77, Prokopenko YN45, Razavi H25, Razavi-Shearer D25, Razavi-Shearer K25, Redae B8,78, Reic T79, Rinke de Wit T80, Rios C81, Robbins S25, Roberts LR82, Sanad SJ37, Schmelzer JD25, Sharma M12, Su TH47, Sultan K12, Tchernev K83, Tsang OTY84, Tsang S85, Tzeuton C86, Ugoeze S87, Uzochukwu B88, Vi R45,89, Vince A90, Wani HU12, Wong VWS1,91, Workneh A92,93, Yacoub R12, Yesmembetov KI94, Youbi M49, Yuen MF95, Nde H25.

Author information

1
Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
2
Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
3
Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
4
Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria.
5
Gastroenterolgy Clinic, IBN Al-Nafees Hospital, Manama, Bahsrain.
6
Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital, Muscat, Oman.
7
Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Addis Ababa University Medical School, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
8
Ethiopian Gastroenterological Association, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
9
Department of Hepatology, Selayang Hospital, Selangor, Malaysia.
10
Clinic of Gastroenterology, Military Medical Academy, Sofia, Bulgaria.
11
Communicable Diseases Division, Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Bogota, Colombia.
12
Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.
13
Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.
14
Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.
15
Salmaniya Medical Complex, Manama, Bahrain.
16
Civil Society Network on Hepatitis, Abuja, Nigeria.
17
Chagro-Care Trust (CCT), Jalingo, Nigeria.
18
Al Kindi Specialised Hospital, Manama, Bahrain.
19
GI and Hepatology Department, Jordan Royal Medical Services, Amman, Jordan.
20
Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, Muscat, Oman.
21
Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Qatar.
22
Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana.
23
University Hospital "St. Ivan Rilski", Sofia, Bulgaria.
24
Advocacy for the Prevention of Hepatitis in Nigeria, Jos, Nigeria.
25
Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA.
26
Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Kano, Nigeria.
27
Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria.
28
LiveWell Initiative (LWI), Lagos, Nigeria.
29
Hepatitis Research Center, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
30
National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
31
Liver Research Unit, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan.
32
Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan.
33
Department of Epidemiology and Demography, Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Bogota, Colombia.
34
Department of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
35
Ministry of Public Health, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
36
University Hospital "Queen Joanna", Sofia, Bulgaria.
37
BDF Hospital, Royal Medical Services, Riffa, Bahrain.
38
Pan American Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA.
39
Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Al Bashir Hospital, Amman, Jordan.
40
Jordan Ministry of Health, Amman, Jordan.
41
General Hospital Pula, Pula, Croatia.
42
Department of Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
43
Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Putrajaya, Malaysia.
44
Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana, Kazakhstan.
45
Republican Coordination Center for Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Astana, Kazakhstan.
46
Department of Medicine, Miniya University, Minya, Egypt.
47
Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei City, Taiwan.
48
Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office, World Health Organization, Cairo, Egypt.
49
Department of Epidemiology and Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Rabat, Morocco.
50
Republican Diagnostic Center, Astana, Kazakhstan.
51
University Medical Center, Astana, Kazakhstan.
52
University Hospital "St. Marina", Varna, Bulgaria.
53
Department of Medicine, North District Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
54
Department of Medicine, Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
55
Department of Public Health Sciences, Loyola University Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
56
Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan.
57
University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria.
58
Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria.
59
Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
60
Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Kwong Wah Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
61
Clinical Department of Infectious Diseases, Split University Hospital and Split University Medical School, Split, Croatia.
62
Benue State University Teaching Hospital, Makurdi, Nigeria.
63
University of Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
64
Department of Infectious Diseases, Zadar General Hospital, Zadar, Croatia.
65
IBN SINA Hospital, Rabat, Morocco.
66
National Research Institute of Cardiology and Internal Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
67
Virology Department, Centre Pasteur of Cameroon, Yaounde, Cameroon.
68
Research Laboratory on Viral Hepatitis & Health Communication, Faculty of Medicine, University of Yaoundé, Yaoundé, Cameroon.
69
Department of Epidemiology, Institute of Public Health, County of Dalmatia, Split, Croatia.
70
Department of Pediatrics, University of Jos, Jos, Nigeria.
71
Department of Medicine, University of Jos, Jos, Nigeria.
72
Jos University Teaching Hospital, Jos, Nigeria.
73
Beacon Youth Initiative, Lafia, Nigeria.
74
University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria.
75
Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
76
African Society of Laboratory Medicine, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
77
Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital, Kumasi, Ghana.
78
St. Paul's Hospital Millennium College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
79
European Liver Patients Association, Sint-Truiden, Belgium.
80
PharmAccess Foundation, Department of Global Health, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
81
Department of Health Promotion and Disease Prevention, Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Bogota, Colombia.
82
Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.
83
"Sofiamed" Hospital, Sofia, Bulgaria.
84
Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Princess Margaret Hospital Authority, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
85
Department of Medicine, Tseung Kwan O Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
86
Faculty of Medicine and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon.
87
Federal Medical Centre, Jalingo, Nigeria.
88
Institute of Public Health, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria.
89
International HepatoTransplant Group, Astana, Kazakhstan.
90
Medical School University of Zagreb, University Hospital of Infectious Diseases Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia.
91
State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China.
92
Non-Communicable Diseases Programme, World Health Organization, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
93
Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
94
National Scientific Center of Oncology and Transplantology, Astana, Kazakhstan.
95
Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China.

Abstract

Factors influencing the morbidity and mortality associated with viremic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection change over time and place, making it difficult to compare reported estimates. Models were developed for 17 countries (Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan) to quantify and characterize the viremic population as well as forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2015 to 2030. Model inputs were agreed upon through expert consensus, and a standardized methodology was followed to allow for comparison across countries. The viremic prevalence is expected to remain constant or decline in all but four countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Jordan and Oman); however, HCV-related morbidity and mortality will increase in all countries except Qatar and Taiwan. In Qatar, the high-treatment rate will contribute to a reduction in total cases and HCV-related morbidity by 2030. In the remaining countries, however, the current treatment paradigm will be insufficient to achieve large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality.

KEYWORDS:

HCV; diagnosis; disease burden; epidemiology; hepatitis C; incidence; mortality; prevalence; treatment

PMID:
29105283
DOI:
10.1111/jvh.12760
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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