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Trends Microbiol. 2018 Feb;26(2):102-118. doi: 10.1016/j.tim.2017.09.004. Epub 2017 Oct 30.

Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology.

Author information

1
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. Electronic address: dhmorris@princeton.edu.
2
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
3
Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
4
Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
5
Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ, USA.
6
Biozentrum, University of Basel and Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Basel, Switzerland.
7
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
8
Worldwide Influenza Centre, Francis Crick Institute, London, UK.

Abstract

Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on the ability of scientists to predict nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive models. Based on data-sharing and close collaboration between the World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveillance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Predictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise.

KEYWORDS:

Influenza; Predictive evolution; predictive modeling; vaccine strain selection

PMID:
29097090
PMCID:
PMC5830126
DOI:
10.1016/j.tim.2017.09.004
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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