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Environ Health Perspect. 2017 Oct 10;125(10):107004. doi: 10.1289/EHP2198.

Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System.

Author information

1
Scientific Assessment Section, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control , Stockholm, Sweden.
2
Instituto de Investigaciones Tecnoloxicas, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela , Santiago, Spain.
3
Physical Oceanography Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , Miami, Florida, USA.
4
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami , Miami, Florida, USA.
5
Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Umeå University , Umeå, Sweden.
6
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University , Umeå, Sweden.
7
Epidemic Intelligence and Response, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control , Stockholm, Sweden.
8
Folkhälsomyndigheten , Stockholm, Sweden.
9
The Milner Centre for Evolution, Department of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Bath , Bath, UK.
10
The Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), Weymouth, UK.
11
Public Health England , London, UK.
12
University of Exeter , Exeter, UK.
13
University of East Anglia , Norwich, UK.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST).

OBJECTIVES:

Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios.

METHODS:

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5.

RESULTS:

The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure-response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades.

CONCLUSIONS:

This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198.

PMID:
29017986
PMCID:
PMC5933323
DOI:
10.1289/EHP2198
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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