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Prev Vet Med. 2017 Oct 1;146:86-93. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.07.017. Epub 2017 Jul 27.

A financial cost-benefit analysis of eradicating virulent footrot.

Author information

1
Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, P.O. Box 115, NO-1431 Ås, Norway. Electronic address: Leif-Jarle.Asheim@nibio.no.
2
Norwegian Veterinary Institute, P.O. Box 750 Sentrum, NO-0106 Oslo, Norway.
3
Animalia, Norwegian Meat and Poultry Research Centre, P.O. Box 396 Økern, NO-0513 Oslo, Norway.
4
Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, P.O. Box 115, NO-1431 Ås, Norway.

Abstract

In 2008, virulent footrot was detected in sheep in south-west Norway. Footrot is caused by Dichelobacter nodosus, and the outbreak was linked to live sheep imported from Denmark in 2005. A large-scale program for eradicating the disease was implemented as a joint industry and governmental driven eradication project in the years 2008-2014, and continued with surveillance and control measures by the Norwegian Food Safety Authority from 2015. The cost of the eradication program including surveillance and control measures until 2032 was assumed to reach approximately €10.8 million (NOK 90 million). A financial cost-benefit analysis, comparing costs in the eradication program with costs in two simulated scenarios, was carried out. In the scenarios, designated ModerateSpread (baseline) and SlowSpread, it was assumed that the sheep farmers would undertake some voluntary measures on their own that would slow the spread of the disease. The program obtained a positive NPV after approximately 12 years. In a stochastic analysis, the probabilities of a positive NPV were estimated to 1.000 and to 0.648 after 15 years and to 0.378 and 0.016 after ten years, for the ModerateSpread and SlowSpread scenarios respectively. A rapid start-up of the program soon after the detection of the disease was considered crucial for the economic success as the disease would have become more widespread and probably raised the costs considerably at a later start-up.

KEYWORDS:

Dichelobacter nodosus; Economy; Footrot; Net present value; Norway; Sheep

PMID:
28992932
DOI:
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.07.017
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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