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Jpn J Clin Oncol. 2017 Nov 1;47(11):1097-1102. doi: 10.1093/jjco/hyx128.

Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

Author information

1
Department of Mathematical Health Science, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Osaka.
2
Division of Cancer Statistics Integration, Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center.
3
Division of Prevention.
4
Center for Public Health Sciences, National Cancer, Tokyo, Japan.

Abstract

Objective:

To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category.

Methods:

Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method.

Results:

The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively.

Conclusions:

Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs.

KEYWORDS:

Helicobacter pylori; incidence; mortality; risk; stomach neoplasms

PMID:
28977484
PMCID:
PMC5896697
DOI:
10.1093/jjco/hyx128
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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