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Jpn J Clin Oncol. 2017 Nov 1;47(11):1097-1102. doi: 10.1093/jjco/hyx128.

Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

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Department of Mathematical Health Science, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Osaka.
Division of Cancer Statistics Integration, Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center.
Division of Prevention.
Center for Public Health Sciences, National Cancer, Tokyo, Japan.



To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category.


Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method.


The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively.


Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs.


Helicobacter pylori; incidence; mortality; risk; stomach neoplasms

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