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Prim Care Diabetes. 2018 Feb;12(1):13-22. doi: 10.1016/j.pcd.2017.08.005. Epub 2017 Sep 28.

Predictors of undiagnosed prevalent type 2 diabetes - The Danish General Suburban Population Study.

Author information

1
Section of General Practice, Department of Public Health and Research Unit for General Practice, University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Electronic address: anhe@sund.ku.dk.
2
Section of General Practice, Department of Public Health and Research Unit for General Practice, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
3
Department of Production, Research, and Innovation, Region Zealand, Sorø, Denmark; Department of Laboratory Medicine, Boston Children's Hospital & Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.

Abstract

AIMS:

To investigate how self-reported risk factors (including socioeconomic status) predict undiagnosed, prevalent type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). To externally validate Leicester Risk Assessment Score (LRAS), Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and Danish Diabetes Risk Score (DDRS), and to investigate how these predict a European Heart SCORE≥5% in a Danish population study.

METHODS:

We included 21,205 adults from the Danish General Suburban Population Study. We used relative importance calculations of self-reported variables in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM. We externally validated established prediction models reporting ROC-curves for undiagnosed T2DM, pre-diabetes and SCORE.

RESULTS:

More than 20% of people with T2DM were undiagnosed. The 7 most important self-rated predictors in sequential order were high BMI, antihypertensive-therapy, age, cardiovascular disease, waist-circumference, fitness compared to peers and family disposition for T2DM. The Area Under the Curve for prediction of undiagnosed T2DM was 77.1 for LRAS; 75.4 for DDRS and 67.9 for FINDRISC. AUCs for SCORE was 75.1 for LRAS; 62.3 for DDRS and 54.3 for FINDRISC.

CONCLUSIONS:

BMI and self-reported cardiovascular disease are important risk factors for undiagnosed T2DM. LRAS performed better than DDRS and FINDRISC in prediction of undiagnosed T2DM and SCORE≥5%. SCORE performed best in predicting pre-diabetes.

KEYWORDS:

Fitness; Self assessment; Socioeconomic status; Undiagnosed diabetes

PMID:
28964672
DOI:
10.1016/j.pcd.2017.08.005
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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