Format

Send to

Choose Destination
Euro Surveill. 2017 Sep 21;22(38). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.38.30615.

Burden of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis: a time series analysis, Belgium, 2012 to 2020.

Author information

1
Institute of Health and Society (IRSS), Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.
2
Department of Public Health and Surveillance, Scientific Institute of Public Health (WIV-ISP), Brussels, Belgium.
3
Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
4
Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
5
University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States.
6
Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
7
University of Texas, Dallas, Richardson, Texas, United States.

Abstract

Salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis are food-borne diseases. We estimated and forecasted the number of cases of these three diseases in Belgium from 2012 to 2020, and calculated the corresponding number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The salmonellosis time series was fitted with a Bai and Perron two-breakpoint model, while a dynamic linear model was used for campylobacteriosis and a Poisson autoregressive model for listeriosis. The average monthly number of cases of salmonellosis was 264 (standard deviation (SD): 86) in 2012 and predicted to be 212 (SD: 87) in 2020; campylobacteriosis case numbers were 633 (SD: 81) and 1,081 (SD: 311); listeriosis case numbers were 5 (SD: 2) in 2012 and 6 (SD: 3) in 2014. After applying correction factors, the estimated DALYs for salmonellosis were 102 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 8-376) in 2012 and predicted to be 82 (95% UI: 6-310) in 2020; campylobacteriosis DALYs were 1,019 (95% UI: 137-3,181) and 1,736 (95% UI: 178-5,874); listeriosis DALYs were 208 (95% UI: 192-226) in 2012 and 252 (95% UI: 200-307) in 2014. New actions are needed to reduce the risk of food-borne infection with Campylobacter spp. because campylobacteriosis incidence may almost double through 2020.

KEYWORDS:

Belgium; DALYs; Salmonellosis; burden; campylobacteriosis; listeriosis; prediction; time series

[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for PubMed Central
Loading ...
Support Center