INTRODUCTION:

Tuberculosis notification in Portugal has decreased in the last few years. As a consequence of the economic crisis, emigration has increased and immigration has decreased. Immigrants are a risk group for tuberculosis. Most emigrants are 20-44 years old and belong to the age group most affected by tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE:

To describe the decrease in tuberculosis notification in Portugal over the last years from a demographical point of view.

METHODS:

Mathematical analysis was performed to quantify the effect of the migration movements (separately and simultaneously) on tuberculosis notification in Portugal from 2008 to 2014. We calculated the estimated tuberculosis notification for each year during the period of study: 1) fixing immigration rate and tuberculosis rate in immigrants at 2008 values; 2) fixing emigration rate and tuberculosis rate in emigrants at 2008 values; 3) fixing both phenomenons at 2008 values.

RESULTS:

The differences between the observed and the estimated numbers were small (≤0.5 cases/100000 inhabitants).

DISCUSSION:

Impact of the migration movements on tuberculosis notification rate does not seem to be significant when analyzed for each phenomenon individually and simultaneously, by our model. This might mean that we have to concentrate our efforts in other risk factors for tuberculosis.

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