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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Aug 29;114(35):9326-9331. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1701762114. Epub 2017 Aug 15.

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

Zhao C1, Liu B2,3,4,5,6, Piao S7,8,9, Wang X1, Lobell DB10, Huang Y11, Huang M1, Yao Y1, Bassu S12, Ciais P13, Durand JL14, Elliott J15,16, Ewert F17,18, Janssens IA19, Li T20, Lin E21, Liu Q1, Martre P22, Müller C23, Peng S1, Peñuelas J24,25, Ruane AC26,16, Wallach D27, Wang T8,9, Wu D1, Liu Z1, Zhu Y2,3,4,5, Zhu Z1, Asseng S28.

Author information

1
Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
2
National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China.
3
Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095.
4
Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095.
5
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095.
6
Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.
7
Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; sasseng@ufl.edu slpiao@pku.edu.cn.
8
Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China.
9
Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China.
10
Department of Earth System Science Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
11
State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China.
12
Desertification Research Centre, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy.
13
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Le Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives, CNRS, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France.
14
Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, CS 80006, 86600 Lusignan, France.
15
University of Chicago Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637.
16
Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025.
17
Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Bonn 53115, Germany.
18
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany.
19
Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium.
20
International Rice Research Institute, Los Baños, 4031 Laguna, Philippines.
21
Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
22
UMR Laboratoire d'Ecophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress Environementaux, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Montpellier SupAgro, 34060 Montpellier, France.
23
Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
24
Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals, Cerdanyola del Valles, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain.
25
Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain.
26
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025.
27
UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et Développement Territorial, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, 31326 Castanet-Tolosan Cedex, France.
28
Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611; sasseng@ufl.edu slpiao@pku.edu.cn.

Abstract

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

KEYWORDS:

climate change impact; global food security; major food crops; temperature increase; yield

PMID:
28811375
PMCID:
PMC5584412
DOI:
10.1073/pnas.1701762114
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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