Practical risk score for 5-, 10-, and 20-year prediction of dementia in elderly persons: Framingham Heart Study

Alzheimers Dement. 2018 Jan;14(1):35-42. doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2017.04.013. Epub 2017 Jun 13.

Abstract

Introduction: With a rapidly aging population, general practitioners are confronting the challenge of how to determine those who are at greatest risk for dementia and potentially need more specialized follow-up to mitigate symptoms early in its course. We created a practical dementia risk score and provided individualized estimates of future dementia risk.

Methods: Using the Framingham Heart Study data, we built our prediction model using Cox proportional hazard models and developed a point system for the risk score and risk estimates.

Results: The score system used total points ranging from -1 to 31 and stratifies individuals into different levels of risk. We estimated 5-, 10-, and 20-year dementia risk prediction and incorporated these into the points system.

Discussion: This risk score system provides a practical tool because all included predictors are easy to assess by practitioners. It can be used to estimate future probabilities of dementia for individuals.

Keywords: Dementia; Framingham Heart Study; Prediction; Risk factor; Risk score.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Age Distribution
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Dementia / diagnosis*
  • Dementia / epidemiology*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Mental Status Schedule
  • Middle Aged
  • Neuropsychological Tests
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Time Factors