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BMC Infect Dis. 2017 May 30;17(1):374. doi: 10.1186/s12879-017-2478-6.

A user-friendly mathematical modelling web interface to assist local decision making in the fight against drug-resistant tuberculosis.

Author information

1
Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia. romain.ragonnet@burnet.edu.au.
2
Burnet Institute, 85 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3141, Australia. romain.ragonnet@burnet.edu.au.
3
Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
4
Victorian Tuberculosis Program, Melbourne Health, Melbourne, Australia.
5
School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
6
Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia.
7
Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
8
Marie Bashir Institute and the Centre for Research Excellence in Tuberculosis, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
9
Burnet Institute, 85 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC, 3141, Australia.
10
Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia.

Abstract

Multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) represent an important challenge for global tuberculosis (TB) control. The high rates of MDR/RR-TB observed among re-treatment cases can arise from diverse pathways: de novo amplification during initial treatment, inappropriate treatment of undiagnosed MDR/RR-TB, relapse despite appropriate treatment, or reinfection with MDR/RR-TB. Mathematical modelling allows quantification of the contribution made by these pathways in different settings. This information provides valuable insights for TB policy-makers, allowing better contextualised solutions. However, mathematical modelling outputs need to consider local data and be easily accessible to decision makers in order to improve their usefulness. We present a user-friendly web-based modelling interface, which can be used by people without technical knowledge. Users can input their own parameter values and produce estimates for their specific setting. This innovative tool provides easy access to mathematical modelling outputs that are highly relevant to national TB control programs. In future, the same approach could be applied to a variety of modelling applications, enhancing local decision making.

KEYWORDS:

Causal pathway; Decision making; Misdiagnosis; Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; Re-treatment; Tuberculosis; User Interface

PMID:
28558651
PMCID:
PMC5450394
DOI:
10.1186/s12879-017-2478-6
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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