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BMJ Open. 2017 May 11;7(5):e015424. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-015424.

Estimating the prevalence, hospitalisation and mortality from type 2 diabetes mellitus in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

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Demography and Social Statistics, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria.
Centre for Global Health Research, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Faculty of Health and Applied Sciences, University of the West of England, Bristol, UK.
Department of Biochemistry, College of Health Sciences, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria.
Economics and Development Studies, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria.
School of Pharmacy and Biomedical Sciences, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, UK.



There is not yet a comprehensive evidence-based epidemiological report on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Nigeria. We aimed to estimate country-wide and zonal prevalence, hospitalisation and mortality rates of T2DM in Nigeria.


We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, Africa Journals Online (AJOL) and Google Scholar for population and hospital-based studies on T2DM in Nigeria. We conducted a random-effects meta-analysis on extracted crude estimates, and applied a meta-regression epidemiological model, using the United Nations demographics for Nigeria in 1990 and 2015 to determine estimates of diabetes in Nigeria for the two years.


42 studies, with a total population of 91 320, met our selection criteria. Most of the studies selected were of medium quality (90.5%). The age-adjusted prevalence rates of T2DM in Nigeria among persons aged 20-79 years increased from 2.0% (95% CI 1.9% to 2.1%) in 1990 to 5.7% (95% CI 5.5% to 5.8%) in 2015, accounting for over 874 000 and 4.7 million cases, respectively. The pooled prevalence rate of impaired glucose tolerance was 10.0% (95% CI 4.5% to 15.6%), while impaired fasting glucose was 5.8% (95% CI 3.8% to 7.8%). Hospital admission rate for T2DM was 222.6 (95% CI 133.1 to 312.1) per 100 000 population with hyperglycaemic emergencies, diabetic foot and cardiovascular diseases being most common complications. The overall mortality rate was 30.2 (95% CI 14.6 to 45.8) per 100 000 population, with a case fatality rate of 22.0% (95% CI 8.0% to 36.0%).


Our findings suggest an increasing burden of T2DM in Nigeria with many persons currently undiagnosed, and few known cases on treatment.


Nigeria; complications; diabetes; epidemiology; mortality; prevalence

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