Format

Send to

Choose Destination
Health Aff (Millwood). 2017 May 1;36(5):902-908. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2016.1315.

Modeling The Economic And Health Impact Of Increasing Children's Physical Activity In The United States.

Author information

1
Bruce Y. Lee (brucelee@jhu.edu) is executive director of the Global Obesity Prevention Center and an associate professor in the Department of International Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, in Baltimore, Maryland.
2
Atif Adam is a senior analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
3
Eli Zenkov is a programmer analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and a public health applications developer at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center at Carnegie Mellon University, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
4
Daniel Hertenstein is a senior programmer analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
5
Marie C. Ferguson is a senior analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and a research associate in the Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
6
Peggy I. Wang is a senior research program coordinator at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
7
Michelle S. Wong is a senior analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
8
Patrick Wedlock is a systems modeler at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
9
Sindiso Nyathi is a systems modeler at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
10
Joel Gittelsohn is director of community interventions at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and a professor in the Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
11
Saeideh Falah-Fini is an assistant professor in the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering at the California State Polytechnic University, in Pomona, and a collaborator at the Global Obesity Prevention Center.
12
Sarah M. Bartsch is a senior analyst at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and a research associate in the Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
13
Lawrence J. Cheskin is director of clinical research at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and associate professor in the Department of Health, Behavior, and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
14
Shawn T. Brown is director of computational research at the Global Obesity Prevention Center and director of public health applications at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center at Carnegie Mellon.

Abstract

Increasing physical activity among children is a potentially important public health intervention. Quantifying the economic and health effects of the intervention would help decision makers understand its impact and priority. Using a computational simulation model that we developed to represent all US children ages 8-11 years, we estimated that maintaining the current physical activity levels (only 31.9 percent of children get twenty-five minutes of high-calorie-burning physical activity three times a week) would result each year in a net present value of $1.1 trillion in direct medical costs and $1.7 trillion in lost productivity over the course of their lifetimes. If 50 percent of children would exercise, the number of obese and overweight youth would decrease by 4.18 percent, averting $8.1 billion in direct medical costs and $13.8 billion in lost productivity. Increasing the proportion of children who exercised to 75 percent would avert $16.6 billion and $23.6 billion, respectively.

KEYWORDS:

Children’s Health; healthcare costs; obesity; physical activity

Comment in

PMID:
28461358
PMCID:
PMC5563819
DOI:
10.1377/hlthaff.2016.1315
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Atypon Icon for PubMed Central
Loading ...
Support Center