Format

Send to

Choose Destination
Environ Pollut. 2017 Aug;227:15-23. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2017.04.049. Epub 2017 Apr 25.

The nexus between urbanization and PM2.5 related mortality in China.

Author information

1
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
2
Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
3
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
4
Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing, China.
5
State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China. Electronic address: jbi@nju.edu.cn.
6
School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, USA. Electronic address: pkinney@bu.edu.

Abstract

The launch of China's new national urbanization plan, coupled with increasing concerns about air pollution, calls for better understandings of the nexus between urbanization and the air pollution-related health. Based on refined estimates of PM2.5 related mortality in China, we developed an Urbanization-Excess Deaths Elasticity (U-EDE) indicator to measure the marginal PM2.5 related mortality caused by urbanization. We then applied statistical models to estimate U-EDE and examined the modification effects of income on U-EDE. Urbanization in China between 2004 and 2012 led to increased PM2.5 related mortality. A 1% increase in urbanization was associated with a 0.32%, 0.14%, and 0.50% increase in PM2.5 related mortality of lung cancer, stroke, and ischemic heart disease. U-EDEs were modified by income with an inverted U curve, i.e., lower marginal impacts at the lowest and highest income levels. In addition, we projected the future U-EDE trend of China as a whole and found that China had experienced the peak of U-EDE and entered the second half of the inverted U-shaped curve. In the near future, national average U-EDE in China will decline along with the improvement of income level if no dramatic changes happen. However, the decreased U-EDE only implies that marginal PM2.5-related mortality brought by urbanization would decrease in China. Total health damage of urbanization will keep going up in the predictable future because the U-EDE is always positive.

KEYWORDS:

China; Mortality; PM(2.5); Urbanization

PMID:
28454017
DOI:
10.1016/j.envpol.2017.04.049
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Elsevier Science
Loading ...
Support Center