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Sci Rep. 2017 Mar 24;7:43227. doi: 10.1038/srep43227.

Comparison of validation and application on various cardiovascular disease mortality risk prediction models in Chinese rural population.

Author information

1
Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, PR China.
2
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, PR China.
3
Department of Health Education, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, PR China.
4
Department of Management Information Systems, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United State.

Abstract

This research aims to assess application of different cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk prediction models in Chinese rural population. Data was collected from a 6-year follow-up survey in rural area of Henan Province, China. 10338 participants aged 40 to 65 years were included. Baseline study was conducted between 2007 and 2008, and followed up from 2013 to 2014. Seven models: general Framingham risk score (general-FRS), simplified-FRS, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for high (SCORE-high), SCORE-low, Chinese ischemic CVD (CN-ICVD), Pooled Cohort Risk Equation for white (PCE-white) and for African-American (PCE-AA) were assessed and recalibrated. The model performance was evaluated by C-statistics and modified Nam-D'Agostino test. 168 CVD deaths occurred during follow-up. All seven models showed moderate C-statics ranging from 0.727 to 0.744. Following recalibration, general-FRS, simplified-FRS, CN-ICVD, PCE-white and PCE-AA had improved C-statistics of 0.776, 0.795, 0.793, 0.779, and 0.776 for men and 0.756, 0.753, 0.755, 0.758 and 0.760 for women, respectively. Calibrations χ2 of general-FRS, simplified-FRS, SCORE-high, CN-ICVD and PCE-AA model for men, and general-FRS, CN-ICVD and PCE-white model for women were statistically acceptable, indicating these models predicts CVD mortality risk more accurately than others and could be recommended in Chinese rural population.

PMID:
28337999
PMCID:
PMC5364500
DOI:
10.1038/srep43227
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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