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Biom J. 2017 Jul;59(4):746-766. doi: 10.1002/bimj.201600064. Epub 2017 Mar 20.

A Bayesian subgroup analysis using collections of ANOVA models.

Author information

1
Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, 45221, USA.
2
Department of Biostatistics, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, 53226, USA.
3
Department of Mathematics, University of Texas, Austin, TX, 78712, USA.

Abstract

We develop a Bayesian approach to subgroup analysis using ANOVA models with multiple covariates, extending an earlier work. We assume a two-arm clinical trial with normally distributed response variable. We also assume that the covariates for subgroup finding are categorical and are a priori specified, and parsimonious easy-to-interpret subgroups are preferable. We represent the subgroups of interest by a collection of models and use a model selection approach to finding subgroups with heterogeneous effects. We develop suitable priors for the model space and use an objective Bayesian approach that yields multiplicity adjusted posterior probabilities for the models. We use a structured algorithm based on the posterior probabilities of the models to determine which subgroup effects to report. Frequentist operating characteristics of the approach are evaluated using simulation. While our approach is applicable in more general cases, we mainly focus on the 2 × 2 case of two covariates each at two levels for ease of presentation. The approach is illustrated using a real data example.

KEYWORDS:

Bayes; Subgroup analysis

PMID:
28319254
DOI:
10.1002/bimj.201600064
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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