A measurement model for real estate bubble size based on the panel data analysis: An empirical case study

PLoS One. 2017 Mar 8;12(3):e0173287. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173287. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

Employing the fundamental value of real estate determined by the economic fundamentals, a measurement model for real estate bubble size is established based on the panel data analysis. Using this model, real estate bubble sizes in various regions in Japan in the late 1980s and in recent China are examined. Two panel models for Japan provide results, which are consistent with the reality in the 1980s where a commercial land price bubble appeared in most area and was much larger than that of residential land. This provides evidence of the reliability of our model, overcoming the limit of existing literature with this method. The same models for housing prices in China at both the provincial and city levels show that contrary to the concern of serious housing price bubble in China, over-valuing in recent China is much smaller than that in 1980s Japan.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • China
  • Commerce
  • Housing / economics*
  • Japan
  • Models, Theoretical*

Grants and funding

We acknowledge the support from the following research projects: “A Study on Spatial Effects of Regional Systemic Financial Risks Led by Real Estate Market in Jiangsu Province” (15EYD004) from Social Science Scientific Fund of Jiangsu Province; “A Study on Regional Systemic Financial Risks Led by Real Estate in China” (2016M591948) from China Post-doctor Scientific Fund; “Methodology of Functional Data Mining with Its Application in Financial Market” (15YJCZH162) from Humanities and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China; “Sailing Plan” from China University of Mining & Technology. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.