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Risk Anal. 2017 Dec;37(12):2420-2434. doi: 10.1111/risa.12775. Epub 2017 Feb 28.

Finely Resolved On-Road PM2.5 and Estimated Premature Mortality in Central North Carolina.

Author information

1
Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
2
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
3
National Exposure Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.

Abstract

To quantify the on-road PM2.5 -related premature mortality at a national scale, previous approaches to estimate concentrations at a 12-km × 12-km or larger grid cell resolution may not fully characterize concentration hotspots that occur near roadways and thus the areas of highest risk. Spatially resolved concentration estimates from on-road emissions to capture these hotspots may improve characterization of the associated risk, but are rarely used for estimating premature mortality. In this study, we compared the on-road PM2.5 -related premature mortality in central North Carolina with two different concentration estimation approaches-(i) using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to model concentration at a coarser resolution of a 36-km × 36-km grid resolution, and (ii) using a hybrid of a Gaussian dispersion model, CMAQ, and a space-time interpolation technique to provide annual average PM2.5 concentrations at a Census-block level (∼105,000 Census blocks). The hybrid modeling approach estimated 24% more on-road PM2.5 -related premature mortality than CMAQ. The major difference is from the primary on-road PM2.5 where the hybrid approach estimated 2.5 times more primary on-road PM2.5 -related premature mortality than CMAQ due to predicted exposure hotspots near roadways that coincide with high population areas. The results show that 72% of primary on-road PM2.5 premature mortality occurs within 1,000 m from roadways where 50% of the total population resides, highlighting the importance to characterize near-road primary PM2.5 and suggesting that previous studies may have underestimated premature mortality due to PM2.5 from traffic-related emissions.

KEYWORDS:

Air pollution; PM2.5; R-LINE; fine-resolution modeling; traffic-related mortality

PMID:
28244115
DOI:
10.1111/risa.12775
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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