Objective: To investigate the value of means of surfaces with nonhomogeneity (MSN) in esti-mating the incidence of pneumoconiosis. Methods: Based on the principal component analysis, all counties (districts) of Hebei Province, China, were divided into three categories according to the degree of pneumoconiosis hazards and the MSN model was used to estimate the incidence rate of pneumoconiosis and the number of pneu-moconiosis cases using the data of the incidence of pneumoconiosis in 2010. Results: With reference to the appli-cation requirements of the MSN model, results of the principal component analysis, and expert experience, the 172 counties (districts) in Hebei Province were divided into three categories with mild, moderate, and severe pneumoconiosis hazards. There were 74, 61, and 49 counties in the above categories, respectively, and 12, 12, and 25 counties were selected from them, respectively. The estimated number of pneumoconiosis cases in Hebei Province was 2105, and the incidence rate was 261.5 per hundred thousand, with a standard error of esti-mation of 389.9 per hundred thousand. Conclusion: The MSN model provides a new thought and method for es-timating the number of pneumoconiosis cases.
目的：探讨采用非均质表面估计模型（MSN）估算尘肺病发病情况。 方法：基于主成分分析法，将河北省所有县（区）按尘肺病危害程度分为3层，利用2010年县（区）尘肺病发病数据，应用MSN模型估算尘肺发病率和发病数。 结果：综合MSN模型应用要求、主成分分析结果、专家经验，将河北省172个县（区）分为职业病危害较轻、中等、较重3层，各层县（区）数分别为74、61、49个，分别从各层中选取样本县12、12、25个，估算河北省尘肺病发病人数为2 105人，发病率为261.5/10万，估算标准误为389.9/10万。 结论： MSN模型为推测尘肺病例数量提供了一种新的思路和科学方法。.
Keywords: Forecasting; Means of surfaces with stratified non-homogeneity; Pneumoconiosis.