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PLoS Pathog. 2017 Jan 31;13(1):e1006198. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1006198. eCollection 2017 Jan.

Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.

Author information

1
State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
2
Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
3
Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania.
4
Ecologie & Evolution, UMR 7625, UPMC-ENS, Paris, France.
5
UMMISCO UMI 209 IRD - UPMC, Bondy, France.
6
State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
7
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
8
Xi'an Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
9
Hu County Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
10
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
11
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
12
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of OsloBlindern, Oslo, Norway.

Abstract

Zoonoses are increasingly recognized as an important burden on global public health in the 21st century. High-resolution, long-term field studies are critical for assessing both the baseline and future risk scenarios in a world of rapid changes. We have used a three-decade-long field study on hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen distributed worldwide, coupled with epidemiological data from an endemic area of China, and show that the shift in the ecological dynamics of Hantaan virus was closely linked to environmental fluctuations at the human-wildlife interface. We reveal that environmental forcing, especially rainfall and resource availability, exert important cascading effects on intra-annual variability in the wildlife reservoir dynamics, leading to epidemics that shift between stable and chaotic regimes. Our models demonstrate that bimodal seasonal epidemics result from a powerful seasonality in transmission, generated from interlocking cycles of agricultural phenology and rodent behavior driven by the rainy seasons.

PMID:
28141833
PMCID:
PMC5302841
DOI:
10.1371/journal.ppat.1006198
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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