Format

Send to

Choose Destination
JAMA Oncol. 2017 Apr 1;3(4):524-548. doi: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2016.5688.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration, Fitzmaurice C1, Allen C2, Barber RM2, Barregard L3, Bhutta ZA4, Brenner H5, Dicker DJ2, Chimed-Orchir O6, Dandona R7, Dandona L2, Fleming T2, Forouzanfar MH2, Hancock J2, Hay RJ8, Hunter-Merrill R2, Huynh C2, Hosgood HD9, Johnson CO2, Jonas JB10, Khubchandani J11, Kumar GA7, Kutz M2, Lan Q12, Larson HJ13, Liang X14, Lim SS2, Lopez AD15, MacIntyre MF2, Marczak L2, Marquez N2, Mokdad AH2, Pinho C2, Pourmalek F16, Salomon JA17, Sanabria JR18, Sandar L2, Sartorius B19, Schwartz SM20, Shackelford KA2, Shibuya K21, Stanaway J2, Steiner C2, Sun J22, Takahashi K23, Vollset SE24, Vos T2, Wagner JA2, Wang H2, Westerman R25, Zeeb H26, Zoeckler L2, Abd-Allah F27, Ahmed MB28, Alabed S29, Alam NK30, Aldhahri SF31, Alem G32, Alemayohu MA33, Ali R34, Al-Raddadi R35, Amare A36, Amoako Y37, Artaman A38, Asayesh H39, Atnafu N40, Awasthi A41, Saleem HB42, Barac A43, Bedi N44, Bensenor I45, Berhane A46, Bernabé E47, Betsu B48, Binagwaho A49, Boneya D32, Campos-Nonato I50, Castañeda-Orjuela C51, Catalá-López F52, Chiang P53, Chibueze C54, Chitheer A55, Choi JY56, Cowie B57, Damtew S58, das Neves J59, Dey S60, Dharmaratne S61, Dhillon P62, Ding E63, Driscoll T64, Ekwueme D65, Endries AY66, Farvid M67, Farzadfar F68, Fernandes J69, Fischer F70, G/Hiwot TT71, Gebru A72, Gopalani S73, Hailu A74, Horino M75, Horita N76, Husseini A77, Huybrechts I78, Inoue M21, Islami F79, Jakovljevic M80, James S81, Javanbakht M82, Jee SH83, Kasaeian A84, Kedir MS85, Khader YS86, Khang YH87, Kim D88, Leigh J89, Linn S90, Lunevicius R91, El Razek HMA92, Malekzadeh R93, Malta DC94, Marcenes W47, Markos D95, Melaku YA72, Meles KG96, Mendoza W97, Mengiste DT72, Meretoja TJ98, Miller TR99, Mohammad KA100, Mohammadi A101, Mohammed S102, Moradi-Lakeh M103, Nagel G104, Nand D105, Le Nguyen Q106, Nolte S107, Ogbo FA108, Oladimeji KE109, Oren E110, Pa M111, Park EK112, Pereira DM113, Plass D114, Qorbani M115, Radfar A116, Rafay A117, Rahman M118, Rana SM119, Søreide K120, Satpathy M121, Sawhney M122, Sepanlou SG123, Shaikh MA124, She J125, Shiue I126, Shore HR127, Shrime MG128, So S129, Soneji S130, Stathopoulou V131, Stroumpoulis K132, Sufiyan MB133, Sykes BL134, Tabarés-Seisdedos R135, Tadese F136, Tedla BA137, Tessema GA138, Thakur JS139, Tran BX140, Ukwaja KN141, Uzochukwu BSC142, Vlassov VV143, Weiderpass E144, Wubshet Terefe M145, Yebyo HG72, Yimam HH146, Yonemoto N147, Younis MZ148, Yu C149, Zaidi Z150, Zaki MES151, Zenebe ZM152, Murray CJL2, Naghavi M2.

Author information

1
Division of Hematology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle2Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle.
2
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle.
3
University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
4
Aga Khan University, Pakistan.
5
German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany.
6
University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Fukuoka, Japan.
7
Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India.
8
International Foundation for Dermatology, London, England.
9
Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Global Health Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, New York, New York.
10
Department of Ophthalmology, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany.
11
Ball State University, Muncie, Indiana.
12
National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.
13
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, England.
14
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
15
School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
16
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia.
17
Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
18
School of Medicine, Marshall University, Huntington, West Virginia.
19
University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
20
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.
21
University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
22
Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
23
University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Fukuoka, Japan.
24
Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, Norway.
25
Federal Institute for Population Research, Hessen, Germany.
26
Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology, Bremen, Germany.
27
Department of Neurology, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt.
28
College of Health Sciences, Department of Epidemiology, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia.
29
College of Health Sciences, Department of Epidemiology, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, England.
30
Queensland Health Herston, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
31
Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
32
Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia.
33
School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
34
Cancer Epidemiology Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, England.
35
Public Health Directorate, Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health, Jeddah, Makkah, Saudi Arabia.
36
School of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia37Bahir Dar University, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.
37
Department of Medicine, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital Ghana, Kumasi, Ghana.
38
Department of Community Health Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
39
Department of Medical Emergency, School of Paramedic, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran.
40
College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Department of Nursing, Mizan Tepi University, Mizan Teferi, Ethiopia.
41
Department of Biostatistics, Nayati Multi Super Speciality Hospital, Mathura, India.
42
Department of Community Medicine, Aden Cancer Registry, and Research Center Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Aden University, Aden, Yemen.
43
Clinic for Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Clinical Center of Serbia, Faculty of Medicine University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
44
Department of Epidemiology, Tropical Disease Unit, College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia.
45
Department of Internal Medicine, University of São Paul, São Paul, Brazil.
46
College of Health Sciences, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia).
47
Division of Population and Patient Health, King's College London Dental Institute, London, England.
48
Mekelle University, Tigray, Ethiopia.
49
University of Global Health Equit, Kigali, Rwanda51Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
50
National Institute of Public Health, Morelos, Mexico.
51
Instituto Nacional de Salud Bogota, Bogota, Colombia.
52
Department of Medicine, University of Valencia/INCLIVA Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain55Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
53
Clinical Governance Unit, Gold Coast Health, Southport, Queensland, Australia.
54
National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan.
55
Ministry of Health, Baghdad, Iraq.
56
Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea.
57
WHO Collaborating Centre for Viral Hepatitis, Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia.
58
School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences and Medicine, Wolaita Sodo University, Wolaita Sodo, Ethiopia).
59
i3S-Instituto de Investigação e Inovação em Saúde, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.
60
Indian Institute of Public Health-Delhi, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, India.
61
Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka.
62
Centre for Chronic Conditions and Injuries, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, India.
63
Department of Nutrition, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts.
64
Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
65
Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia.
66
Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia.
67
Department of Nutrition, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts71Harvard/MGH Center on Genomics, Vulnerable Populations, and Health Disparities, Mongan Institute for Health Policy, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts.
68
Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
69
Center for Biotechnology and Fine Chemistry-Associate Laboratory, Faculty of Biotechnology, Catholic University of Portugal, Porto, Portugal.
70
Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany.
71
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia.
72
Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
73
Government of the Federated States of Micronesia, Palikir, Federated States of Micronesia.
74
Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
75
Nevada Division of Public and Behavioral Health, Carson City.
76
Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan.
77
Institute of Community and Public Health, Birzeit University, Birzeit, Palestine.
78
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
79
Surveillance and Health Services Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia.
80
University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia.
81
Emergency Medicine, Denver Health/University of Colorado, Denver.
82
Health Economics Group, Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, England.
83
Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea.
84
Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
85
Department of Pharmacy, College of Health Sciences, Mizan Tepi University, Mizan Teferi, Ethiopia.
86
Department of Community Medicine, Public Health and Family Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology Irbid, Irbid, Jordan.
87
Department of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea92Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Seoul, South Korea.
88
Department of Health Science, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts.
89
Asbestos Disease Research Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
90
School of Public Health, Faculty of Social Welfare and Health, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel.
91
Aintree University Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust, Liverpool, England.
92
Surgery Department, Mansoura Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, Egypt.
93
Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Fars, Iran.
94
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
95
College of Health Sciences, Arsi University, Assela, Ethiopia.
96
Department of Epidemiology, College of Health Science, School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
97
Peru Country Office, United Nations Population Fund, Lima, Peru.
98
Comprehensive Cancer Center, Breast Surgery Unit, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland.
99
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland105Center for Population Health Research, The Curtin University, Calverton, Maryland.
100
Faculty of Education, Ishik University, Erbil, Iraq107Faculty of Education, University of Salahaddin, Erbil, Iraq.
101
Neuroscience Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
102
Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria.
103
Department of Community Medicine, Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
104
Ulm University, Ulm, Germany.
105
Ministry of Health, Suva, Fiji.
106
Duy Tan University, Da Nang Vietnam.
107
Charité Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany.
108
Centre for Health Research, Western Sydney University, Sydney, Australia.
109
Department of Public Health Medicine, College of Health Science, Howard College Campus, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
110
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health University of Arizona, Tucson.
111
Department of Pulmonary Medicine, JSS Medical College, JSS University, Mysore, India.
112
Kosin University, Busan, South Korea.
113
Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal.
114
Department of Environmental Hygiene, German Environment Agency, Berlin, Germany.
115
Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran.
116
College of Graduate Heath Study, A. T. Still University, Kirksville, Missouri.
117
Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore Pakistan.
118
BRAC, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
119
Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan.
120
Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway128Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
121
Jai Prakash Narayan Apex Trauma Centre, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India.
122
Department of Public Health, College of Health Professions, Marshall University, Huntington, West Virginia.
123
Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
124
Independent consultant, Karachi Pakistan.
125
Fudan University Shanghai, China.
126
Northumbria University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, England.
127
College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia.
128
Program in Global Surgery and Social Change, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
129
Asian Liver Center, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California.
130
The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, New Hampshire139Norris Cotton Cancer Center, Dartmouth Medical School, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, New Hampshire.
131
Attikon University Hospital, Athens, Greece.
132
Alexandra General Hospital of Athens, Athens, Greece.
133
Department of Community Medicine Faculty of Medicine, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria.
134
Department of Criminology, Law & Society, University of California Irvine, Irvine.
135
Department of Medicine, University of Valencia/INCLIVA Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain.
136
Department of Public Health, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia.
137
University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
138
Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia147School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
139
Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India.
140
Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, Maryland.
141
Department of Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki Nigeria.
142
Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Nigeria Nsukka, Enugu, Nigeria.
143
Center for Health Policy, National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia.
144
Department of Research, Group of Etiological Cancer Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo154Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden155Genetic Epidemiology Group, Folkhälsan Research Center, Helsinki, Finland156Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
145
Department of Public Health, St. Paul's Hospital Millenium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
146
Mizan Tepi University, Mizan Teferi, Ethiopia.
147
Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
148
Department of Health Policy and Management, Jackson State University, Jackson, Mississippi.
149
Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
150
Department of Epidemiology, University Hospital of Setif, Algeria.
151
Clinical Pathology Department, Mansoura Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, Egypt.
152
College of Health Sciences, Department of Midwidery, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.

Abstract

Importance:

Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning.

Objective:

To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

Evidence Review:

Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results.

Findings:

In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant.

Conclusion and Relevance:

As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.

PMID:
27918777
DOI:
10.1001/jamaoncol.2016.5688
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Silverchair Information Systems
Loading ...
Support Center