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Future Microbiol. 2016 Dec;11:1549-1561. Epub 2016 Nov 10.

The potential benefits of a new poliovirus vaccine for long-term poliovirus risk management.

Author information

1
Kid Risk, Inc., 10524 Moss Park Rd., Ste. 204-364, Orlando, FL 32832, USA.

Abstract

AIM:

To estimate the incremental net benefits (INBs) of a hypothetical ideal vaccine with all of the advantages and no disadvantages of existing oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines compared with current vaccines available for future outbreak response.

METHODS:

INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management.

RESULTS:

Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability-high-consequence realizations.

CONCLUSION:

New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.

KEYWORDS:

OPV cessation; dynamic modeling; eradication; polio; risk management; vaccine development

PMID:
27831742
DOI:
10.2217/fmb-2016-0126
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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