Although aneurysm size still remains the most accepted predictor of rupture risk, abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) with maximum diameter smaller than 5 cm may also rupture. Growth rate is an additional marker for rupture risk as it potentially reflects an undesirable wall remodeling that leads to fast regional growth. Currently, an indication for surgery is an expansion rate >10 mm/year, measured as change in maximum diameter over time. However, as AAA expansion is non-uniform, it is questionable whether measurement of maximum diameter change over time can capture increased localized remodeling activity. A method for estimating AAA surface area growth is introduced, providing a better measure of local wall deformation. The proposed approach is based on the non-rigid iterative closest point algorithm. Optimization and validation is performed using 12 patient-specific AAA geometries artificially deformed to produce a target surface with known nodal displacements. Mesh density sensitivity, range of uncertainty, and method limitations are discussed. Application to ten AAA patient-specific follow-ups suggested that maximum diameter growth does not correlate strongly with the maximum surface growth (R 2 = 0.614), which is not always colocated with maximum diameter, or uniformly distributed. Surface growth quantification could reinforce the quality of aneurysm surveillance programs.
Keywords: Aneurysm growth; Disease follow-up; Rupture risk.