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J Pharm Pharmacol. 2016 Dec;68(12):1501-1515. doi: 10.1111/jphp.12618. Epub 2016 Oct 26.

Forecasting oral absorption across biopharmaceutics classification system classes with physiologically based pharmacokinetic models.

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Institute of Pharmaceutical Technology, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
Centre for Applied Pharmacokinetic Research, Manchester Pharmacy School, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.



The aim of this study was (1) to determine how closely physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models can predict oral bioavailability using a priori knowledge of drug-specific properties and (2) to examine the influence of the biopharmaceutics classification system class on the simulation success.


Simcyp Simulator, GastroPlus and GI-Sim were used. Compounds with published Biowaiver monographs (bisoprolol (BCS I), nifedipine (BCS II), cimetidine (BCS III), furosemide (BCS IV)) were selected to ensure availability of accurate and reproducible data for all required parameters. Simulation success was evaluated with the average fold error (AFE) and absolute average fold error (AAFE). Parameter sensitivity analysis (PSA) to selected parameters was performed.


Plasma concentration-time profiles after intravenous administration were forecast within an AAFE < 3. The addition of absorption processes resulted in more variability in the prediction of the plasma profiles, irrespective of biopharmaceutics classification system (BCS) class. The reliability of literature permeability data was identified as a key issue in the accuracy of predicting oral drug absorption.


For the four drugs studied, it appears that the forecasting accuracy of the PBPK models is related to the BCS class (BCS I > BCS II, BCS III > BCS IV). These results will need to be verified with additional drugs.


absorption; bioavailability; biopharmaceutics classification system; permeability; physiologically based pharmacokinetics

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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