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Lancet. 2016 Oct 8;388(10053):1659-1724. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31679-8.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

Collaborators (644)

Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, Anderson HR, Bhutta ZA, Biryukov S, Brauer M, Burnett R, Cercy K, Charlson FJ, Cohen AJ, Dandona L, Estep K, Ferrari AJ, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Gething PW, Godwin WW, Griswold M, Kinfu Y, Kyu HH, Larson HJ, Liang X, Lim SS, Liu PY, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Marczak L, Mensah GA, Mokdad AH, Moradi-Lakeh M, Naghavi M, Neal B, Reitsma MB, Roth GA, Salomon JA, Sur PJ, Vos T, Wagner JA, Wang H, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Aasvang GM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Abraham B, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu GY, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ajala ON, Akinyemiju TF, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NK, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alemu ZA, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Antonio CA, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atique S, Avokpaho EF, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BP, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Batis C, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bourne RR, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJ, Brenner H, Broday DM, Brugha TS, Brunekreef B, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Casey DC, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Chang JC, Chiang PP, Chibalabala M, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Choi JJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Coates MM, Colquhoun SM, Cooper LT, Cooperrider K, Cornaby L, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Cuevas-Nasu L, Damasceno A, Dandona R, Darby SC, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davis AC, Davletov K, de Castro EF, De la Cruz-Góngora V, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Gobbo LC, Del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribew A, Jarlais DC, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Faraon EJ, Farid TA, Farinha CS, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fischer F, Fitchett JR, Fleming T, Foigt N, Foreman K, Fowkes FG, Franklin RC, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Goenka S, Gomez-Cabrera MC, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Guillemin F, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Hassen TA, Havmoeller R, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernández-Llanes NF, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hutchings SJ, Huybrechts I, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Ileanu BV, Inoue M, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jansen HA, Jassal SK, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jin Y, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khatibzadeh S, Khera S, Khoja TA, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Kromhout H, Krueger H, Ku T, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Larsson A, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AE, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Li X, Li Y, Liang J, Liu S, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, MacIntyre M, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manamo WA, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehari A, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensink GB, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mola GL, Monasta L, Hernandez JC, Montico M, Morawska L, Mori R, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Mumford JE, Murthy GV, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Nangia V, Nassiri N, Newton JN, Ng M, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PM, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olsen H, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Orozco R, Ortiz A, Ota E, Pa M, Pana A, Park EK, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Caicedo AJ, Patil ST, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Plass D, Polinder S, Pond CD, Pope CA, Pope D, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RH, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MH, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranganathan K, Rao P, García CA, Refaat AH, Rehm CD, Rehm J, Reinig N, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Rivera JA, Roba HS, Rodriguez A, Rodriguez-Ramirez S, Rojas-Rueda D, Roman Y, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Sandar L, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJ, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Levy TS, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DA, Silveira DG, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh PK, Slepak EL, Soljak M, Soneji S, Sorensen RJ, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stöckl H, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CE, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Takahashi K, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye BW, Taylor HR, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Terkawi AS, Thakur JS, Thomas BA, Thomas ML, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tobollik M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimparis N, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Donkelaar A, van Os J, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Veerman JL, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wang JL, Wang L, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CD, Won S, Woolf AD, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki ME, Zhu J, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJ.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS:

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS:

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION:

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING:

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

PMID:
27733284
PMCID:
PMC5388856
DOI:
10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31679-8
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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