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Sci Rep. 2016 Sep 26;6:33707. doi: 10.1038/srep33707.

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico.

Author information

1
Dengue Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico.
2
Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
3
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA.
4
Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
5
Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
6
J.A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Abstract

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model.

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