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J Hepatocell Carcinoma. 2015 Jan 30;2:3-9. doi: 10.2147/JHC.S73828. eCollection 2015.

Untreated hepatocellular carcinoma in Egypt: outcome and prognostic factors.

Author information

1
Medical Oncology/Hematology, National Cancer Institute, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt.
2
Medical Oncology, Tanta Cancer Center, Tanta, Egypt.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common cancer worldwide as well as in Egypt with hepatitis C and B, alcohol and aflatoxins being the commonest risk factors.

AIM:

The objective of this study was to assess the prognostic factors affecting overall survival (OS) of untreated HCC in Egypt.

METHODS:

This retrospective study was conducted at Tanta Cancer Center, Egypt where 288 HCC cases who received no specific therapy and were followed-up until death were identified. The impact of possible prognostic factors on OS was assessed using the log-rank test (univariate analyses) and Cox regression method (multivariate analysis).

RESULTS:

The median OS of untreated HCC was 2.3 months (95% confidence interval: 1.9-2.6). The 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 months OS rates were 84%, 42%, 21%, 9%, and 3%, respectively. All cases had died by 46 months. Male sex, advanced Child-Pugh class, the clinical presentation of ascites, cough, fatigue, and the presence of metastases were associated with poor survival (P<0.05 for all). In multivariate analysis; cough, presence of ascites, and Child-Pugh class were independent predictors of poor survival.

CONCLUSION:

OS in untreated HCC in Egypt is very short. Many factors interact to produce this dismal survival.

KEYWORDS:

Egypt; hepatocellular carcinoma; prognosis; survival

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