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Risk Anal. 2016 Jul;36(7):1288-96. doi: 10.1111/risa.12655.

Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I.

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Kid Risk, Inc, Orlando, FL, USA.
College of Medicine, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA.
Center for Global Health, Global Immunization Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA, USA.


Over the past 50 years, the use of vaccines led to significant decreases in the global burdens of measles and rubella, motivated at least in part by the successive development of global control and elimination targets. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) includes specific targets for regional elimination of measles and rubella in five of six regions of the World Health Organization by 2020. Achieving the GVAP measles and rubella goals will require significant immunization efforts and associated financial investments and political commitments. Planning and budgeting for these efforts can benefit from learning some important lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Following an overview of the global context of measles and rubella risks and discussion of lessons learned from the GPEI, we introduce the contents of the special issue on modeling and managing the risks of measles and rubella. This introduction describes the synthesis of the literature available to support evidence-based model inputs to support the development of an integrated economic and dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage these diseases globally using vaccines.


Infectious disease; measles; modeling; rubella

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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