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Nature. 2016 Jun 30;534(7609):631-9. doi: 10.1038/nature18307.

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C.

Author information

1
ENE Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
2
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
3
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
4
NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany.
5
Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
6
World Resources Institute, Washington DC, USA.
7
Energy Research Center, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
8
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
9
National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing, China.
10
Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria.
11
Australian-German Climate and Energy College, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
12
PRIMAP Group, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.

Abstract

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

PMID:
27357792
DOI:
10.1038/nature18307
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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