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Cancer Epidemiol. 2016 Aug;43:22-9. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2016.05.009. Epub 2016 Jun 16.

Bayesian prediction of lung and breast cancer mortality among women in Spain (2014-2020).

Author information

1
Biostatistics Unit, Department of Basic Sciences, Universitat Internacional de Catalunya, Sant Cugat del Vallès, Spain.
2
Plan for Oncology of the Catalan Government, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain; Department of Clinical Sciences, School of Medicine, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
3
Centre Atenció Primària Les Corts. Transverse Group for Research in Primary Care, IDIBAPS, Barcelona, Spain; Public Health Unit, Department of Medicine, Universitat Internacional de Catalunya, Sant Cugat del Vallès, Spain.
4
EPIUnit - Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (ISPUP), Porto, Portugal; Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Predictive Medicine and Public Health, University of Porto Medical School, Porto, Portugal.
5
Biostatistics Unit, Department of Basic Sciences, Universitat Internacional de Catalunya, Sant Cugat del Vallès, Spain; Tobacco Control Unit, Cancer Prevention and Control Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology-ICO, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain; Cancer Control and Prevention Group, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain. Electronic address: jmmartinez@uic.es.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Breast cancer (BC) is the main cause of cancer mortality among women, and mortality from lung cancer (LC) is increasing among women. The purpose of the present study was to project the mortality rates of both cancers and predict when LC mortality will exceed BC mortality.

METHODS:

The cancer mortality data and female population distribution were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude rate (CR), age-standardized rate (ASR), and age-specific rate were calculated for the period 1980-2013 and projected for the period 2014-2020 using a Bayesian log-linear Poisson model.

RESULTS:

All calculated rates were greater for BC than for LC in 2013 (CR, 27.3 versus 17.3; ASR, 13.5 versus 9.3), and the CR was not projected to change by 2020 (29.2 versus 27.6). The ASR for LC is expected to surpass that of BC in 2019 (12.9 versus 12.7).

CONCLUSIONS:

By 2020 the LC mortality rates may exceed those of BC for ages 55-74 years, possibly because of the prevalence of smoking among women, and the screening for and more effective treatment of BC. BC screening could be a good opportunity to help smokers quit by offering counseling and behavioral intervention.

KEYWORDS:

Bayesian models; Breast cancer; Lung cancer; Projections & predictions

PMID:
27318304
DOI:
10.1016/j.canep.2016.05.009
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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