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Cancer. 2016 Aug 15;122(16):2479-86. doi: 10.1002/cncr.30070. Epub 2016 May 20.

Colorectal cancer screening: Estimated future colonoscopy need and current volume and capacity.

Author information

1
Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
2
Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
3
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York.
4
Health and Analytics, Battelle, Seattle, Washington.
5
Office of Public Health Scientific Services, Center for Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Laboratory Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.

Erratum in

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

In 2014, a national campaign was launched to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the United States to 80% by 2018; it is unknown whether there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to reach this goal. This study estimated the number of colonoscopies needed to screen 80% of the eligible population with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy and determined whether there was sufficient colonoscopy capacity to meet the need.

METHODS:

The Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model was used to simulate CRC screening test use in the United States (2014-2040); the implementation of a national screening program in 2014 with FIT or colonoscopy with 80% participation was assumed. The 2012 Survey of Endoscopic Capacity (SECAP) estimated the number of colonoscopies that were performed and the number that could be performed.

RESULTS:

If a national screening program started in 2014, by 2024, approximately 47 million FIT procedures and 5.1 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a program using FIT as the primary screening test; approximately 11 to 13 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a colonoscopy-only screening program. According to the SECAP survey, an estimated 15 million colonoscopies were performed in 2012, and an additional 10.5 million colonoscopies could be performed.

CONCLUSIONS:

The estimated colonoscopy capacity is sufficient to screen 80% of the eligible US population with FIT, colonoscopy, or a mix of tests. Future analyses should take into account the geographic distribution of colonoscopy capacity. Cancer 2016;122:2479-86. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

KEYWORDS:

capacity; colonoscopy; colorectal cancer screening

PMID:
27200481
PMCID:
PMC5559728
DOI:
10.1002/cncr.30070
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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