Extended likelihood ratio test-based methods for signal detection in a drug class with application to FDA's adverse event reporting system database

Stat Methods Med Res. 2018 Mar;27(3):876-890. doi: 10.1177/0962280216646678. Epub 2016 May 2.

Abstract

A likelihood ratio test, recently developed for the detection of signals of adverse events for a drug of interest in the FDA Adverse Events Reporting System database, is extended to detect signals of adverse events simultaneously for all the drugs in a drug class. The extended likelihood ratio test methods, based on Poisson model (Ext-LRT) and zero-inflated Poisson model (Ext-ZIP-LRT), are discussed and are analytically shown, like the likelihood ratio test method, to control the type-I error and false discovery rate. Simulation studies are performed to evaluate the performance characteristics of Ext-LRT and Ext-ZIP-LRT. The proposed methods are applied to the Gadolinium drug class in FAERS database. An in-house likelihood ratio test tool, incorporating the Ext-LRT methodology, is being developed in the Food and Drug Administration.

Keywords: Likelihood ratio; false discovery rate; sensitivity; zero-inflated Poisson.

MeSH terms

  • Adverse Drug Reaction Reporting Systems / statistics & numerical data*
  • Biostatistics / methods
  • Computer Simulation
  • Databases, Pharmaceutical / statistics & numerical data
  • Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse Reactions*
  • Humans
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Poisson Distribution
  • Signal-To-Noise Ratio
  • United States
  • United States Food and Drug Administration