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Elife. 2016 Apr 19;5. pii: e15272. doi: 10.7554/eLife.15272.

Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus.

Author information

1
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
2
Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
3
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States.
4
Department of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, United Kingdom.
5
WorldPop project, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom.
6
Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United Kingdom.
7
Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
8
Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.
9
Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden.
10
Section Clinical Tropical Medicine, Department for Infectious Diseases, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany.
11
German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Heidelberg partner site, Heidelberg, Germany.
12
Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Health Brazil, Brasilia, Brazil.
13
Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, United States.

Abstract

Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.

KEYWORDS:

Zika virus; disease mapping; epidemiology; global health; human; infectious disease; microbiology; vector-borne disease; virus

PMID:
27090089
PMCID:
PMC4889326
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.15272
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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