Send to

Choose Destination
Cancer Sci. 2016 Apr;107(4):521-7. doi: 10.1111/cas.12902. Epub 2016 Mar 28.

Burden of cancer associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japan, 2010-2030.

Author information

AXA Department of Health and Human Security, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Epidemiology and Prevention Group, Center for Public Health Sciences, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Department of Public Health, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan.
Division of Surveillance, Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Saitama Medical University, Moroyama, Japan.


Diabetes mellitus constitutes a major disease burden globally, and the prevalence of diabetes continues to increase worldwide. We aimed to estimate the burden of cancer associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japan between 2010 and 2030. In this study, we estimated the population attributable fraction of cancer risk associated with type 2 diabetes in 2010 and 2030 using the prevalence estimates of type 2 diabetes in Japan from 1990 to 2030, summary hazard ratios of diabetes and cancer risk from a pooled analysis of eight large-scale Japanese cohort studies, observed incidence/mortality of cancer in 2010 and predicted incidence/mortality for 2030 derived from the age-period-cohort model. Our results showed that between 2010 and 2030, the total numbers of cancer incidence and mortality were predicted to increase by 38.9% and 10.5% in adults aged above 20 years, respectively. In the number of excess incident cancer cases associated with type 2 diabetes, an increase of 26.5% in men and 53.2% in women is expected between 2010 and 2030. The age-specific analysis showed that the population attributable fraction of cancer will increase in adults aged >60 years over time, but will not change in adults aged 20-59 years. In conclusion, this study suggests a modest but steady increase in cancers associated with type 2 diabetes.


APC models; cancer; diabetes mellitus; population attributable fraction; prediction

[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Wiley Icon for PubMed Central
Loading ...
Support Center