Format

Send to

Choose Destination
Lancet. 2016 Apr 9;387(10027):1513-30. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8. Epub 2016 Apr 6.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

Collaborators (514)

Zhou B, Lu Y, Hajifathalian K, Bentham J, Di Cesare M, Danaei G, Bixby H, Cowan MJ, Ali MK, Taddei C, Lo WC, Reis-Santos B, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Miranda JJ, Bjerregaard P, Rivera JA, Fouad HM, Ma G, Mbanya JC, McGarvey ST, Mohan V, Onat A, Pilav A, Ramachandran A, Romdhane HB, Paciorek CJ, Bennett JE, Ezzati M, Abdeen ZA, Abdul Kadir K, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Acosta-Cazares B, Adams R, Aekplakorn W, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Agyemang C, Ahmadvand A, Al-Othman AR, Alkerwi A, Amouyel P, Amuzu A, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Anjana RM, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Aris T, Arlappa N, Arveiler D, Assah FK, Avdicová M, Azizi F, Balakrishna N, Bandosz P, Barbagallo CM, Barceló A, Batieha AM, Baur LA, Romdhane HB, Benet M, Bernabe-Ortiz A, Bharadwaj S, Bhargava SK, Bi Y, Bjerregaard P, Bjertness E, Bjertness MB, Björkelund C, Blokstra A, Bo S, Boehm BO, Boissonnet CP, Bovet P, Brajkovich I, Breckenkamp J, Brenner H, Brewster LM, Brian GR, Bruno G, Bugge A, Cabrera de León A, Can G, Cândido AP, Capuano V, Carlsson AC, Carvalho MJ, Casanueva FF, Casas JP, Caserta CA, Castetbon K, Chamukuttan S, Chaturvedi N, Chen CJ, Chen F, Chen S, Cheng CY, Chetrit A, Chiou ST, Cho Y, Chudek J, Cifkova R, Claessens F, Concin H, Cooper C, Cooper R, Costanzo S, Cottel D, Cowell C, Crujeiras AB, D'Arrigo G, Dallongeville J, Dankner R, Dauchet L, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, Deepa M, Dehghan A, Deschamps V, Dhana K, Di Castelnuovo AF, Djalalinia S, Doua K, Drygas W, Du Y, Dzerve V, Egbagbe EE, Eggertsen R, El Ati J, Elosua R, Erasmus RT, Erem C, Ergor G, Eriksen L, Escobedo-de la Peña J, Fall CH, Farzadfar F, Felix-Redondo FJ, Ferguson TS, Fernández-Bergés D, Ferrari M, Ferreccio C, Feskens EJ, Finn JD, Föger B, Foo LH, Forslund AS, Fouad HM, Francis DK, Franco Mdo C, Franco OH, Frontera G, Furusawa T, Gaciong Z, Garnett SP, Gaspoz JM, Gasull M, Gates L, Geleijnse JM, Ghasemian A, Ghimire A, Giampaoli S, Gianfagna F, Giovannelli J, Giwercman A, Gross MG, González Rivas JP, Gorbea MB, Gottrand F, Grafnetter D, Grodzicki T, Grøntved A, Gruden G, Gu D, Guan OP, Guerrero R, Guessous I, Guimaraes AL, Gutierrez L, Hambleton IR, Hardy R, Hari Kumar R, Hata J, He J, Heidemann C, Herrala S, Hihtaniemi IT, Ho SY, Ho SC, Hofman A, Hormiga CM, Horta BL, Houti L, Howitt C, Htay TT, Htet AS, Htike MM, Hu Y, Hussieni AS, Huybrechts I, Hwalla N, Iacoviello L, Iannone AG, Ibrahim MM, Ikeda N, Ikram MA, Irazola VE, Islam M, Iwasaki M, Jacobs JM, Jafar T, Jamil KM, Jasienska G, Jiang CQ, Jonas JB, Joshi P, Kafatos A, Kalter-Leibovici O, Kasaeian A, Katz J, Kaur P, Kavousi M, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Kelishadi R, Kengne AP, Kersting M, Khader YS, Khalili D, Khang YH, Kiechl S, Kim J, Kolsteren P, Korrovits P, Kratzer W, Kromhout D, Kujala UM, Kula K, Kyobutungi C, Laatikainen T, Lachat C, Laid Y, Lam TH, Landrove O, Lanska V, Lappas G, Laxmaiah A, Leclercq C, Lee J, Lee J, Lehtimäki T, Lekhraj R, León-Muñoz LM, Li Y, Lim WY, Lima-Costa MF, Lin HH, Lin X, Lissner L, Lorbeer R, Lozano JE, Luksiene D, Lundqvist A, Lytsy P, Ma G, Machado-Coelho GL, Machi S, Maggi S, Magliano DJ, Makdisse M, Mallikharjuna Rao K, Manios Y, Manzato E, Margozzini P, Marques-Vidal P, Martorell R, Masoodi SR, Mathiesen EB, Matsha TE, Mbanya JC, McFarlane SR, McGarvey ST, McLachlan S, McNulty BA, Mediene-Benchekor S, Meirhaeghe A, Menezes AM, Merat S, Meshram II, Mi J, Miquel JF, Miranda JJ, Mohamed MK, Mohammad K, Mohammadifard N, Mohan V, Mohd Yusoff MF, Møller NC, Molnár D, Mondo CK, Morejon A, Moreno LA, Morgan K, Moschonis G, Mossakowska M, Mostafa A, Mota J, Motta J, Mu TT, Muiesan ML, Müller-Nurasyid M, Mursu J, Nagel G, Námešná J, Nang EE, NangThetia VB, Navarrete-Muñoz EM, Ndiaye NC, Nenko I, Nervi F, Nguyen ND, Nguyen QN, Nieto-Martínez RE, Ning G, Ninomiya T, Noale M, Noto D, Nsour MA, Ochoa-Avilés AM, Oh K, Onat A, Ordunez P, Osmond C, Otero JA, Owusu-Dabo E, Pahomova E, Palmieri L, Panda-Jonas S, Panza F, Parsaeian M, Peixoto SV, Pelletier C, Peltonen M, Peters A, Peykari N, Pham ST, Pilav A, Pitakaka F, Piwonska A, Piwonski J, Plans-Rubió P, Porta M, Portegies ML, Poustchi H, Pradeepa R, Price JF, Punab M, Qasrawi RF, Qorbani M, Radisauskas R, Rahman M, Raitakari O, Rao SR, Ramachandran A, Ramke J, Ramos R, Rampal S, Rathmann W, Redon J, Reganit PF, Rigo F, Robinson SM, Robitaille C, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, Rodriguez-Perez Mdel C, Rodríguez-Villamizar LA, Rojas-Martinez R, Ronkainen K, Rosengren A, Rubinstein A, Rui O, Ruiz-Betancourt BS, Russo Horimoto RV, Rutkowski M, Sabanayagam C, Sachdev HS, Saidi O, Sakarya S, Salanave B, Salonen JT, Salvetti M, Sánchez-Abanto J, Santos D, dos Santos RN, Santos R, Saramies JL, Sardinha LB, Sarrafzadegan N, Saum KU, Scazufca M, Schargrodsky H, Scheidt-Nave C, Sein AA, Sharma SK, Shaw JE, Shibuya K, Shin Y, Shiri R, Siantar R, Sibai AM, Simon M, Simons J, Simons LA, Sjostrom M, Slowikowska-Hilczer J, Slusarczyk P, Smeeth L, Snijder MB, So HK, Sobngwi E, Söderberg S, Solfrizzi V, Sonestedt E, Soumare A, Staessen JA, Stathopoulou MG, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stein AD, Stessman J, Stöckl D, Stokwiszewski J, Stronks K, Strufaldi MW, Sun CA, Sundström J, Sung YT, Suriyawongpaisal P, Sy RG, Tai ES, Tamosiunas A, Tang L, Tarawneh M, Tarqui-Mamani CB, Taylor A, Theobald H, Thijs L, Thuesen BH, Tolonen HK, Tolstrup JS, Topbas M, Torrent M, Traissac P, Trinh OT, Tulloch-Reid MK, Tuomainen TP, Turley ML, Tzourio C, Ueda P, Ukoli FA, Ulmer H, Uusitalo HM, Valdivia G, Valvi D, van Rossem L, van Valkengoed IG, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Vega T, Velasquez-Melendez G, Veronesi G, Verschuren WM, Verstraeten R, Viet L, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vollenweider P, Voutilainen S, Vrijheid M, Wade AN, Wagner A, Walton J, Wan Mohamud WN, Wang F, Wang MD, Wang Q, Wang YX, Wannamethee SG, Weerasekera D, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Wiecek A, Wijga AH, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Wu FC, Wu SL, Xu H, Yan W, Yang X, Ye X, Yoshihara A, Younger-Coleman NO, Zambon S, Zargar AH, Zdrojewski T, Zhao W, Zheng Y, Zuñiga Cisneros J.

Erratum in

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.

METHODS:

We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.

FINDINGS:

We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.

INTERPRETATION:

Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.

FUNDING:

Wellcome Trust.

PMID:
27061677
PMCID:
PMC5081106
DOI:
10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests ME reports a charitable grant from Youth Health Programme of AstraZeneca, outside the submitted work. JAR reports personal fees from Tres Montes Lucchetti and grants from Danone Mexico, outside the submitted work. All other members of the Pooled Analysis and Writing Group declare no competing interests.

Publication types, MeSH terms, Substances, Grant support

Publication types

MeSH terms

Substances

Grant support

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Elsevier Science Icon for PubMed Central
Loading ...
Support Center