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Cancer Res Treat. 2016 Apr;48(2):451-7. doi: 10.4143/crt.2016.092. Epub 2016 Mar 25.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2016.

Jung KW1,2, Won YJ1,3, Oh CM1,2, Kong HJ4, Cho H1,2,5, Lee JK1,2, Lee DH2,5, Lee KH1.

Author information

1
The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
2
National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
3
National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea ; Department of Cancer Control and Policy, Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
4
The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea ; National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
5
Department of Cancer Control and Policy, Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.

Abstract

PURPOSE:

To estimate of Korea's current cancer burden, this study aimed to report on projected cancer incidence and mortality rates for the year 2016.

MATERIALS AND METHODS:

Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2013 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2014 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2016 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly.

RESULTS:

A total of 254,962 new cancer cases and 75,172 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2016. The five leading primary cancer incident sites in 2016 were estimated colorectal, stomach, lung, liver and thyroid cancer in men; thyroid, breast, colorectal, stomach, and lung cancer in women.

CONCLUSION:

Currently cancer is one of the foremost public health concerns in Korea. Although cancer rates are anticipated to decrease the nation's cancer burden will continue to increase as the population ages.

KEYWORDS:

2016; Forecasting; Incidence; Korea; Mortality; Neoplasms

PMID:
27034143
PMCID:
PMC4843733
DOI:
10.4143/crt.2016.092
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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