Format

Send to

Choose Destination
Alzheimers Dement. 2016 Jul;12(7):776-85. doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2016.01.011. Epub 2016 Mar 24.

Predicting the progression of Alzheimer's disease dementia: A multidomain health policy model.

Author information

1
Health Economics Group, Institute of Health Research, University of Exeter Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK; Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South West Peninsula, University of Exeter Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. Electronic address: c.green@exeter.ac.uk.
2
Health Economics Group, Institute of Health Research, University of Exeter Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION:

We develop a multidomain model to predict progression of Alzheimer's disease dementia (AD).

METHODS:

Data from the US National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (n = 3009) are used to examine change in symptom status and to estimate transition probabilities between health states described using cognitive function, functional ability, and behavior. A model is used to predict progression and to assess a hypothetical treatment scenario that slows mild to moderate AD progression.

RESULTS:

More than 70% of participants moved state over 12 months. The majority moved in domains other than cognitive function. Over 5 years, of those alive more than half are in severe AD health states. Assessing an intervention scenario, we see fewer years in more severe health states and a potential impact (life years saved) due to mortality improvements.

DISCUSSION:

The model developed is exploratory and has limitations but illustrates the importance of using a multidomain approach when assessing impacts of AD and interventions.

KEYWORDS:

Alzheimer's disease; Decision analytic modelling; Health policy; Prediction; Progression

PMID:
27016691
PMCID:
PMC5104191
DOI:
10.1016/j.jalz.2016.01.011
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Elsevier Science Icon for PubMed Central
Loading ...
Support Center