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Am J Kidney Dis. 2016 Aug;68(2):193-202. doi: 10.1053/j.ajkd.2015.12.025. Epub 2016 Jan 29.

Abrupt Decline in Kidney Function Before Initiating Hemodialysis and All-Cause Mortality: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

Author information

  • 1University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA. Electronic address: raymond.hsu@ucsf.edu.
  • 2University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  • 3University of Washington, Seattle, WA.
  • 4University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA; Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA; Stanford University, Stanford, CA.
  • 5Tulane University, New Orleans, LA.
  • 6Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH.
  • 7National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD.
  • 8University of Illinois, Chicago, IL.
  • 9University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
  • 10Wayne State University, Detroit, MI.
  • 11University of Maryland, Baltimore, MD.
  • 12University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA; Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

It is not clear whether the pattern of kidney function decline in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) may relate to outcomes after reaching end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We hypothesize that an abrupt decline in kidney function prior to ESRD predicts early death after initiating maintenance hemodialysis therapy.

STUDY DESIGN:

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS:

The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study enrolled men and women with mild to moderate CKD. For this study, we studied 661 individuals who developed chronic kidney failure that required hemodialysis therapy initiation.

PREDICTORS:

The primary predictor was the presence of an abrupt decline in kidney function prior to ESRD. We incorporated annual estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) into a mixed-effects model to estimate patient-specific eGFRs at 3 months prior to initiation of hemodialysis therapy. Abrupt decline was defined as having an extrapolated eGFR≥30mL/min/1.73m(2) at that time point.

OUTCOMES:

All-cause mortality within 1 year after initiating hemodialysis therapy.

MEASUREMENTS:

Multivariable Cox proportional hazards.

RESULTS:

Among 661 patients with CKD initiating hemodialysis therapy, 56 (8.5%) had an abrupt predialysis decline in kidney function and 69 died within 1 year after initiating hemodialysis therapy. After adjustment for demographics, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer, abrupt decline in kidney function was associated with a 3-fold higher risk for death within the first year of ESRD (adjusted HR, 3.09; 95% CI, 1.65-5.76).

LIMITATIONS:

Relatively small number of outcomes; infrequent (yearly) eGFR determinations; lack of more granular clinical data.

CONCLUSIONS:

Abrupt decline in kidney function prior to ESRD occurred in a significant minority of incident hemodialysis patients and predicted early death in ESRD.

KEYWORDS:

Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC); Kidney function; disease trajectory; eGFR decline; end-stage renal disease (ESRD); estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR); hemodialysis; mortality; renal replacement therapy (RRT) initiation; transition to ESRD

PMID:
26830447
PMCID:
PMC4967032
[Available on 2017-08-01]
DOI:
10.1053/j.ajkd.2015.12.025
[PubMed - in process]
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