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Curr Environ Health Rep. 2016 Mar;3(1):99-105. doi: 10.1007/s40572-016-0077-0.

Using Uncertain Climate and Development Information in Health Adaptation Planning.

Author information

1
School of Public Health, University of Washington, 4225 Roosevelt Way NE #100, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA. krisebi@uw.edu.
2
School of Public Health, University of Washington, 4225 Roosevelt Way NE #100, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA.
3
School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
4
School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.

Abstract

To aid health adaptation decision-making, there are increasing efforts to provide climate projections at finer temporal and spatial scales. Relying solely on projected climate changes for longer-term decisions makes the implicit assumption that sources of vulnerability other than climate change will remain the same, which is not very probable. Over longer time horizons, this approach likely over estimates the extent to which climate change could alter the magnitude and pattern of health outcomes, introducing systematic bias into health management decisions. To balance this potential bias, decision-makers also need projections of other drivers of health outcomes that are, like climate change, recognized determinants of some disease burdens. Incorporating projections via an iterative process that allows for regular updates based on new knowledge and experience has the potential to improve the utility of fine-scale climate projections in health system adaptation to climate change.

KEYWORDS:

Adaptation; Climate change; Health risks; Risk management; Uncertainty

PMID:
26814795
DOI:
10.1007/s40572-016-0077-0
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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