Format

Send to

Choose Destination
J Viral Hepat. 2015 Dec;22 Suppl 4:21-41. doi: 10.1111/jvh.12476.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 3.

Sibley A1, Han KH2, Abourached A3, Lesmana LA4,5, Makara M6, Jafri W7, Salupere R8, Assiri AM9, Goldis A10, Abaalkhail F11, Abbas Z12, Abdou A13, Al Braiki F14, Al Hosani F15, Al Jaberi K16, Al Khatry M17, Al Mulla MA15, Al Quraishi H18, Al Rifai A19, Al Serkal Y20, Alam A21, Alavian SM22,23, Alashgar HI24, Alawadhi S13, Al-Dabal L25, Aldins P26, Alfaleh FZ27, Alghamdi AS28, Al-Hakeem R9, Aljumah AA29, Almessabi A14, Alqutub AN28, Alswat KA30, Altraif I29, Alzaabi M31, Andrea N32, Babatin MA28, Baqir A33, Barakat MT34, Bergmann OM35, Bizri AR36, Blach S1, Chaudhry A37, Choi MS38, Diab T39, Djauzi S4, El Hassan ES13, El Khoury S40, Estes C1, Fakhry S41, Farooqi JI42,43, Fridjonsdottir H44, Gani RA4, Ghafoor Khan A45, Gheorghe L46, Gottfredsson M47, Gregorcic S48, Gunter J1, Hajarizadeh B49,50, Hamid S51, Hasan I4, Hashim A52, Horvath G53, Hunyady B54,55, Husni R56, Jeruma A57,58, Jonasson JG44,59,60, Karlsdottir B61, Kim DY2, Kim YS62, Koutoubi Z63, Liakina V64,65, Lim YS66, Löve A47,67, Maimets M8, Malekzadeh R68, Matičič M48, Memon MS69, Merat S68, Mokhbat JE70, Mourad FH71, Muljono DH72,73, Nawaz A74, Nugrahini N75, Olafsson S35, Priohutomo S76, Qureshi H77, Rassam P40, Razavi H1, Razavi-Shearer D1, Razavi-Shearer K1, Rozentale B57,58, Sadik M69, Saeed K78, Salamat A79, Sanai FM27, Sanityoso Sulaiman A4, Sayegh RA80, Sharara AI71, Siddiq M81,82, Siddiqui AM83, Sigmundsdottir G84, Sigurdardottir B61, Speiciene D64, Sulaiman A4,85, Sultan MA86, Taha M87, Tanaka J88, Tarifi H89, Tayyab G90,91, Tolmane I57,58, Ud Din M92, Umar M93,94, Valantinas J64, Videčnik-Zorman J48, Yaghi C80, Yunihastuti E95, Yusuf MA96, Zuberi BF97, Schmelzer JD1.

Author information

1
Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Louisville, CO, USA.
2
Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
3
National Hepatitis Program, Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon.
4
Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia.
5
Digestive Disease and GI Oncology Center, Medistra Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia.
6
Central Outpatient Clinic, Saint Laszlo Hospital, Budapest, Hungary.
7
Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
8
Tartu University Hospital, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
9
Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
10
Clinic of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine 'Victor Babes', Timisoara, Romania.
11
Department of Liver and Small Bowel Transplantation, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
12
Ziauddin University, Karachi, Pakistan.
13
Rashid Hospital, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, UAE.
14
Abu Dhabi Health Services Company, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
15
Communicable Diseases Department, Health Authority Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
16
Health Regulation Division, Health Authority Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
17
Ras Al Khaimah Hospital, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE.
18
Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, UAE.
19
Mafraq Hospital, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
20
Hospitals Sector, Ministry of Health, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
21
Shaikh Zayed Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan.
22
Baqiyatallah Research Center for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
23
Middle East Liver Diseases Centre, Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
24
Department of Medicine, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
25
Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Rashid Hospital, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, UAE.
26
Infection Control Department, Pauls Stradins Clinical University Hospital, Riga, Latvia.
27
Liver Disease Research Center, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
28
Gastroenterology and Hepatology Unit, Medical Specialties Department, King Fahad Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
29
King Abdulaziz Medical City and King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
30
Department of Medicine, King Saud University Liver Disease Research Center, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
31
Zayed Military Hospital, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
32
Daman National Health Insurance Company, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
33
Seyal Medical Centre, Multan, Pakistan.
34
Health Authority Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
35
Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
36
Division of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon.
37
Gujranwala Liver Foundation, Siddiq Sadiq Hospital, Gujranwala, Pakistan.
38
Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
39
Al Ain Hospital, Al Ain, UAE.
40
Gastroenterology Department, Saint George Hospital, University of Balamand, Beirut, Lebanon.
41
Abu Dhabi Police, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
42
Postgraduate Medical Institute, Khyber Medical University, Peshawar, Pakistan.
43
Government Lady Reading Hospital, Peshawar, Pakistan.
44
Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
45
Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Lady Reading Hospital, Peshawar, Pakistan.
46
Center of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Fundeni Clinical Institute, Bucharest, Romania.
47
Faculty of Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
48
Clinic for Infectious Diseases and Febrile Illnesses, University Medical Centre, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
49
The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
50
The Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Vic., Australia.
51
The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
52
Liver Transplantation, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
53
Hepatology Center of Buda, Budapest, Hungary.
54
Department of Gastroenterology, Somogy County Kaposi Mor Teaching Hospital, Kaposvar, Hungary.
55
First Department of Medicine, University of Pecs, Pecs, Hungary.
56
Lebanese American University Medical Center, Rizk Hospital, Beirut, Lebanon.
57
Department of Hepatology, Infectology Center of Latvia, Riga, Latvia.
58
Department of Infectology and Dermatology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, Latvia.
59
Icelandic Cancer Registry, Reykjavik, Iceland.
60
The Faculty of Medicine, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
61
Division of Infectious Disease, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
62
Department of Internal Medicine, Soon Chun Hyang University Bucheon Hospital, Bucheon, Korea.
63
Digestive Disease Institute, Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
64
Centre of Hepatology, Gastroenterology, and Dietetics, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania.
65
Department of Biomechanics, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Vilnius, Lithuania.
66
Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
67
Department of Virology, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
68
Liver and Pancreatobiliary Diseases Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
69
Asian Institute of Medical Science (AIMS), Hyderabad, Sindh, Pakistan.
70
Divisions of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, Lebanese American University Medical Center Rizk Hospital, Beirut, Lebanon.
71
Division of Gastroenterology, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon.
72
Eijkman Institute for Molecular Biology, Jakarta, Indonesia.
73
Department of Hepatitis & Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
74
Department of Gastroenterology, Fatima Memorial Hospital College of Medicine and Dentistry, Lahore, Pakistan.
75
Sub-Directorate for Gastrointestinal Infection, Diarrheal Diseases, and Hepatitis, Directorate of Direct Transmitted Disease Control, Disease Control & Environmental Health, Ministry of Health, Jakarta, Indonesia.
76
Directorate of Direct Transmitted Disease Control, Disease Control & Environmental Health, Ministry of Health, Jakarta, Indonesia.
77
Pakistan Medical Research Council, Islamabad, Pakistan.
78
Khawar Clinic, Sahiwal, Pakistan.
79
Department of Gastroenterology, Military Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.
80
Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, School of Medical Science, Saint Joseph University, Beirut, Lebanon.
81
Jinnah Memorial Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.
82
Yusra Medical College, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.
83
Allama Iqbal Medical College, Lahore, Pakistan.
84
Centre for Health Security and Communicable Disease Control, Directorate of Health in Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
85
Klinik Hati Prof. Ali Sulaiman, Jakarta, Indonesia.
86
Health Funding Department, Enaya Insurance Company, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
87
Department of Medicine, Tawam Hospital, Al Ain, UAE.
88
Department of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
89
Pharmacy Department, Tawam Hospital, Al Ain, UAE.
90
Postgraduate Medical Institute, Lahore General Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan.
91
Doctors Hospital and Medical Center, Lahore, Pakistan.
92
Pakistan Society of Gastroenterology, Karachi, Pakistan.
93
Department of Medicine, Rawalpindi Medical College, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.
94
Department of Medicine, Holy Family Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.
95
Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia.
96
Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital & Research Centre, Lahore, Pakistan.
97
Dow Medical College, Karachi, Pakistan.

Abstract

The total number, morbidity and mortality attributed to viraemic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections change over time making it difficult to compare reported estimates from different years. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viraemic population and forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2014 to 2030. With the exception of Iceland, Iran, Latvia and Pakistan, the total number of viraemic HCV infections is expected to decline from 2014 to 2030, but the associated morbidity and mortality are expected to increase in all countries except for Japan and South Korea. In the latter two countries, mortality due to an ageing population will drive down prevalence, morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, both countries have already experienced a rapid increase in HCV-related mortality and morbidity. HCV-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase between 2014 and 2030 in all other countries as result of an ageing HCV-infected population. Thus, although the total number of HCV countries is expected to decline in most countries studied, the associated disease burden is expected to increase. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

KEYWORDS:

diagnosis; disease burden; epidemiology; hepatitis C; hepatitis C virus; incidence; mortality; prevalence; treatment

PMID:
26513446
DOI:
10.1111/jvh.12476
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Wiley
Loading ...
Support Center