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Public Health Action. 2014 Mar 21;4(1):47-52. doi: 10.5588/pha.13.0098.

Using tuberculosis patient characteristics to predict future cases with matching genotype results.

Author information

1
Division of Tuberculosis Elimination, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Centers for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and Tuberculosis Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

Abstract

in English, French, Spanish

SETTING:

United States.

BACKGROUND:

It is unknown whether tuberculosis (TB) case or patient characteristics can predict the likelihood of future related TB cases.

OBJECTIVE:

To estimate the likelihood for future related cases, i.e., cases with matching TB genotypes within the same county diagnosed within the 2 years following the year of reporting of each included case.

DESIGN:

We considered all TB cases with genotyping results reported in the United States during 2004-2010. Predictive scores were calculated based on patient characteristics by dividing the number of patients who were not the last case in a county-level TB genotype cluster by the total number of patients.

RESULTS:

Overall, there was a 30.8% chance that a future related case would be detected during the 2 years following the report year of any given case. Future related cases were detected in 34.7% of instances following the diagnosis of smear-positive cases, 51.9% of instances following the diagnosis of a homeless patient and 45.2% of instances following the diagnosis of a patient who reported substance abuse. Predictive scores ranged by race (White 13.9%, Native Hawaiian 43.8%) and age group (⩾65 years 13.1%, 0-4 years 43%), and were higher for US-born patients.

CONCLUSIONS:

Behavioral and sociodemographic factors can help predict the likelihood of future related cases and can be used to prioritize contact investigations.

KEYWORDS:

genotype; transmission; tuberculosis

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