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Nat Commun. 2015 Sep 22;6:8147. doi: 10.1038/ncomms9147.

Non-random patterns in viral diversity.

Author information

1
Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
2
Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
3
EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, New York 10001, USA.
4
One Health Institute &Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA.
5
Department of Animal Environment and Health, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, PO Box 7068, SE-750 07 Uppsala, Sweden.
6
Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, México D.F. 04510, Mexico.
7
Nicolaus Copernicus University, Lwowska 1, 87-100 Toruń, Poland.
8
International Centre for Diahorreal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), GPO Box 128, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh.
9
Section for Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Bülowsvej 27, DK-1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
10
Metabiota, Inc. One Sutter, Suite 600, San Francisco, CA 94104, USA.
11
IEDCR (Institute of epidemiology and disease control research), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Bangladesh, Mohakhali, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh.

Abstract

It is currently unclear whether changes in viral communities will ever be predictable. Here we investigate whether viral communities in wildlife are inherently structured (inferring predictability) by looking at whether communities are assembled through deterministic (often predictable) or stochastic (not predictable) processes. We sample macaque faeces across nine sites in Bangladesh and use consensus PCR and sequencing to discover 184 viruses from 14 viral families. We then use network modelling and statistical null-hypothesis testing to show the presence of non-random deterministic patterns at different scales, between sites and within individuals. We show that the effects of determinism are not absolute however, as stochastic patterns are also observed. In showing that determinism is an important process in viral community assembly we conclude that it should be possible to forecast changes to some portion of a viral community, however there will always be some portion for which prediction will be unlikely.

PMID:
26391192
PMCID:
PMC4595600
DOI:
10.1038/ncomms9147
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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