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PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015 Aug 14;9(8):e0004002. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004002. eCollection 2015 Aug.

Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR.

Author information

1
Earth Science Office, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama, United States of America.
2
Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America.
3
Entomology and Ecology Activity, Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Calle Cañada, San Juan, Puerto Rico.
4
Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America.

Abstract

Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010-2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r2) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r2 = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r2 = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r2 = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r2 = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r2 = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important environmental and human factors.

PMID:
26275146
PMCID:
PMC4537107
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0004002
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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