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Health Aff (Millwood). 2015 Aug;34(8):1407-17. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2015.0600.

National health expenditure projections, 2014-24: spending growth faster than recent trends.

Author information

1
Sean P. Keehan (sean.keehan@cms.hhs.gov) is an economist in the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), in Baltimore, Maryland.
2
Gigi A. Cuckler is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
3
Andrea M. Sisko is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
4
Andrew J. Madison is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
5
Sheila D. Smith is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
6
Devin A. Stone is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
7
John A. Poisal is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group, CMS Office of the Actuary.
8
Christian J. Wolfe is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
9
Joseph M. Lizonitz is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.

Abstract

Health spending growth in the United States is projected to average 5.8 percent for 2014-24, reflecting the Affordable Care Act's coverage expansions, faster economic growth, and population aging. Recent historically low growth rates in the use of medical goods and services, as well as medical prices, are expected to gradually increase. However, in part because of the impact of continued cost-sharing increases that are anticipated among health plans, the acceleration of these growth rates is expected to be modest. The health share of US gross domestic product is projected to rise from 17.4 percent in 2013 to 19.6 percent in 2024.

KEYWORDS:

Cost of Health Care; Financing Health Care; Health Economics; Health Spending; Medicare

PMID:
26220668
DOI:
10.1377/hlthaff.2015.0600
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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