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Perspect Psychol Sci. 2015 May;10(3):267-81. doi: 10.1177/1745691615577794.

Identifying and cultivating superforecasters as a method of improving probabilistic predictions.

Author information

1
Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania mellers@wharton.upenn.edu.
2
Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania.
3
Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley.
4
Department of Statistics, Temple University.

Abstract

Across a wide range of tasks, research has shown that people make poor probabilistic predictions of future events. Recently, the U.S. Intelligence Community sponsored a series of forecasting tournaments designed to explore the best strategies for generating accurate subjective probability estimates of geopolitical events. In this article, we describe the winning strategy: culling off top performers each year and assigning them into elite teams of superforecasters. Defying expectations of regression toward the mean 2 years in a row, superforecasters maintained high accuracy across hundreds of questions and a wide array of topics. We find support for four mutually reinforcing explanations of superforecaster performance: (a) cognitive abilities and styles, (b) task-specific skills, (c) motivation and commitment, and (d) enriched environments. These findings suggest that superforecasters are partly discovered and partly created-and that the high-performance incentives of tournaments highlight aspects of human judgment that would not come to light in laboratory paradigms focused on typical performance.

KEYWORDS:

expertise; forecasts; predictions; probability training; teams

PMID:
25987508
DOI:
10.1177/1745691615577794
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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