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Science. 2015 Mar 13;347(6227):1240-2. doi: 10.1126/science.aaa3438.

Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola.

Author information

1
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
2
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
3
Centre for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USA.
4
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
5
Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK. Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA. Flowminder Foundation, 17177 Stockholm, Sweden.
6
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
7
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA. justin@jhu.edu.

Abstract

The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The outbreak has also disrupted health care services, including childhood vaccinations, creating a second public health crisis. We project that after 6 to 18 months of disruptions, a large connected cluster of children unvaccinated for measles will accumulate across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This pool of susceptibility increases the expected size of a regional measles outbreak from 127,000 to 227,000 cases after 18 months, resulting in 2000 to 16,000 additional deaths (comparable to the numbers of Ebola deaths reported thus far). There is a clear path to avoiding outbreaks of childhood vaccine-preventable diseases once the threat of Ebola begins to recede: an aggressive regional vaccination campaign aimed at age groups left unprotected because of health care disruptions.

PMID:
25766232
PMCID:
PMC4691345
DOI:
10.1126/science.aaa3438
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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