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Cancer. 2015 Jul 1;121(13):2281-5. doi: 10.1002/cncr.29336. Epub 2015 Mar 12.

Public health impact of achieving 80% colorectal cancer screening rates in the United States by 2018.

Author information

1
Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
2
Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, and the Department of Epidemiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
3
Leonard Davis Center for Health Economics and Public Health Initiatives, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
4
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York.
5
Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente, Oakland, California.
6
Surveillance and Health Services Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

The National Colorectal Cancer Roundtable, a national coalition of public, private, and voluntary organizations, has recently announced an initiative to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the United States to 80% by 2018. The authors evaluated the potential public health benefits of achieving this goal.

METHODS:

The authors simulated the 1980 through 2030 United States population of individuals aged 50 to 100 years using microsimulation modeling. Test-specific historical screening rates were based on National Health Interview Survey data for 1987 through 2013. The effects of increasing screening rates from approximately 58% in 2013 to 80% in 2018 were compared to a scenario in which the screening rate remained approximately constant. The outcomes were cancer incidence and mortality rates and numbers of CRC cases and deaths during short-term follow-up (2013-2020) and extended follow-up (2013-2030).

RESULTS:

Increasing CRC screening rates to 80% by 2018 would reduce CRC incidence rates by 17% and mortality rates by 19% during short-term follow-up and by 22% and 33%, respectively, during extended follow-up. These reductions would amount to a total of 277,000 averted new cancers and 203,000 averted CRC deaths from 2013 through 2030.

CONCLUSIONS:

Achieving the goal of increasing the uptake of CRC screening in the United States to 80% by 2018 may have a considerable public health impact by averting approximately 280,000 new cancer cases and 200,000 cancer deaths within <20 years. Cancer 2015;121:2281-2285. © 2015 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

KEYWORDS:

cancer screening; colorectal neoplasms; incidence; mortality; public health

PMID:
25763558
PMCID:
PMC4567966
DOI:
10.1002/cncr.29336
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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